ATP Aussie Open Day 3 Feb 9th
It’s just sour grapes but man, I feel like I could easily be 13-2 or 12-3 at the Aussie so far.
Just have to keep grinding - reads are right.
I’ve been trying to tweak my pricing model and while I still can’t get it to adjust to the massive quadruple digit moneylines, the stuff under -1000 is getting much tighter and more accurate.
Day Three - Round Two
This is a massive line for Novak and Tiafoe. Tiafoe is a real interesting case, as always. He’s currently ranked 62nd and anyone could pretty easily make the case that he is/should be a regular in the top 50. I bring this up because I looked at Djoker’s record in the first three rounds of the Aussie, combined. He should generally be expected, given his usual rank, to play guys outside the top 50 in the first three rounds (especially the first two rounds). That pretty much bares out; he has played 43 matches in rounds 1-3 across his career at the Aussie. 29 of the 43 (67%) have been against guys outside the top 50, while 14 or 33% have been inside the top 50 (usually third round guys ranked between 30-49). Tiafoe fits the profile perfectly. He’s ranked 62, probably should be like 35-40. Anyway, with a spread of -9.5 in those 43 matches Djoker would have been 22-21 at covering. You think bookmakers didn’t do a bad job? My guess is (my model can’t seem to line matches with a moneyline in the thousands, so it’s useless here) Djoker is in the not messing around mood, considering he destoryed Chardy. He’s not going to want to aggrevate any blister problems more than necessary and will probably not take his foot off the gas. Addtionally, while Tiafoe has a nice scoreline, he played a Travaglia coming off six matches in 7 days and who was in his first ATP final ever the day before Tiafoe broke Travagalia 8 times in 14 return games, converted 67% of his break chances and won a tiebreak. I would expect all of that to regress hard against Djoker (Tiafoe usually breaks serve about 19% on hards, converts about 38% of his break chances and has a career losing record in tiebreaks). I can’t take Djoker here because, well, me and Tiafoe matches are like oil and water. I’ll just sit back and cheer for Frances.
I show a hefty edge on Frizt at these prices. Money initally poured in on Fritz taking him out to almost -150 but it has since pulled back and he can be had around -130. I’m happy to take that. Frizt has beaten Reilly 5 of the 6 times they have played. Head to head doesn’t always mean much but at 5-1, across indoor hards, outdoor hards, and clay, I think it is insightful. Sometimes there are just bad matchups. I think the price is actually low because of Fritz’s poor showing Melbourne last week and the fact that he didn’t put away ARV on a hard court with any authority. His form doesn’t look great. This match should provide comfort and Opelka didn’t get much of a work out playing someone like Lu in round one. Fritz has won all four tiebreaks he has played against Opelka across their career and Reilly still struggles in general during the coinflips (44-50 at the ATP level including losing 67,67 to Botic last week). I’m betting, literally, that Taylor can put things together long enough to grab a win. I’m also going to take a stab at the under. Only four matches have been lined over 40 games so far at the Aussie and only one cleared the total - the dreaded Sinner/Shapo match. While these two have played a few tiebreaks, there’s been less tiebreaks than you’d expect (four in fourteen sets) and they have only split sets once.
I’ll start with the fact that I show significant value on the moneyline for Stan. That is immediately followed by the fact that Stan doesn’t often cover spreads, so with a moneyline like this, probably have to look for a parlay partner. Wawrinka looked like “Slam Wawrinka” as opposed to “Masters 1000 I don’t care and I want to take pictures of my abs on a boat Wawrinka” on Sunday night. That being said, beating Pedro Sousa on a hard court, 3,2,4 probably doesn’t mean much. He’s beaten Fucs all three times they have played on a hard court but none of them have been straight-forward, lending more credence to the parlay idea. Fucs is coming off a five setter (6th most court time in the first round) and the only time he’s actually won a five setter on the ATP tour (he’s won a few in Davis Cup play) and had to play two days later was against Dimitrov at the US Open- he got thumped 62,63,62 by Tiafoe in the next round. I expect Stan to win. I expect him to drop one of the first two sets because, well, he’s Stan. I’ll take the moneyline and parlay it (also Stan 3-1 pays +275 for the gambler in you).
I don’t show value on Moutet (less than 1% edge) or Raonic. Nailed this line. Raonic is made of glass and could break at any moment. Raonic, inconceivably, lost two tiebreaks to Moutet on hard courts last January (Raonic is a 62% winner in tiebreaks, top three active and top ten all time). I don’t see how Raonic loses again but, there is no value here. I will say this, if a set makes it to 6-6, live bet Raonic to win the set, at basically any price.
I show value on Ruusuvuori here; actually quite a lot. Ruus has better hold/break numbers on a hard every year compared to Martinez; they are relatively similar in age so the stats are pretty comparable. Ruus has a better hard court record and similar tiebreak success. They’ve played twice and Russ won both (albeit two years ago), smacking Martinez 63,61 on hard courts. The spread is 4.5 and Russ is coming off his second career five setter. The potential problem here is that Ruus also won his previous five setter and then retired down two sets and a break in his next match. So, there may be a fitness conern here. I’m guessing he has had an off-season and then some to get more fit and beating Monfils is more impressive than whatever happened between Martinez and Nishioka in those last three sets. I’ll avoid the spread, expect Russ to struggle in the middle of the match and then mayeb close it out in four. Good parlay partner with Stan (and another little 3-1 bet).
I show value on Lajovic here but I am going to avoid it. Like Ruus, Lajovic is coming off a five setter. He was 1-9 in five setters before Sunday night when he prevailed over Staks. While I feel kind of ok backing Ruus, he is 21. Lajovic is 30. The Serb doesn’t have a great record in Australia to begin with, his five setter went longer than Ruus’ (53 games to 49) and Bublik held firm against a quality opponent in Bedene during their opening match. If Bublik is there mentally, he is a top 20 talent. My angle here would actually be to watch and see if Lajvoic has his legs. There may be a live opportinity to grab Bublik if he starts to run away with it.
Mannarino and Kecmanovic are very similar on paper. Their hold/break numbers on a hard court are almost identical in 2019 and 2020 (solid size sample) while their numbers over a very short sample in 2021 are only 7% apart. They both are not far off from 0.500 on a hard court and they both suck in tiebreaks. I show a small edge (3%) on Mannarino as a dog and I am tempted to grab it. I soured so hard on Kecmanovic watching him last week in the Great Ocean in Melbourne event. Beating Kwon and Caruso doesn’t do much for me, nor does beating Majchrzak. None of those guys are near the top 50. Mannarino is no great shakes but he’s been to Australia 11 years running, he knows how to deal with the environment, he dispatched Novak easily in round one, he is a lefty (Kecmanovic has a career losing record against lefies even after removing Nadal (which you should always do)), and Kec is 9-22 against top 50 players. I guess I’m backing the French.
I don’t show any value in the Zverev/Cressy match. It’s a pretty high spread too for two guys who are facsimile’s of a servebot. Tiebreak = yes is priced at -175 and it obviously wouldn’t surprise to see one. What I actually do with Zverev if you look back over the last two years of my timeline is bet him live. Once he got over the choking in Slams (which can still happen) thing he has been pretty consistent at struggling early and then locking in and running away with it. 1st set tiebreak is a good bet here as is a live spred bet if it does get to 6-6 or if Zverev loses that first set tiebreak.
Unfortunately, I don’t have time to write up the other 8 before first ball. Maybe later tonight.
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