ATP Aussie Open Feb 10

Maybe the worst day I’ve had in a year. Tried to get too cute and none of the prop bets hit. Tried to hit some totals, went 1-3. The Fritz under and the Tomic over were just simply a matter of the guy I bet on not converting break points - which is such a grinding, repetitive problem (Fritz went 3 for 13, Tomic went 0 for 7).

Aussie Day 4

I’m really tempted by both the Rublev spread and the under. There is no inherent “value” based on my model but it’s hard to tell with moneyline’s this big. Monteiro is coming off his first ever main draw win at a hard court slam. And it was over a true clay courter in Andrej Martin. He should get rolled tonight. The issue I am having is the line is arranged right in terms of handicap related to total. The total is 28.5 and whether you pay for the -8.5/-9 or take back juice for -9.5 you are looking at a scoreline of 62,62,75/64 to cover the -9.5 or 62,62,76 to push the -9 or cover -8.5. If Monteiro covers, the total will be 29 or higher. If Rublev covers it’s probably just cheaper to take the under. the extra juice on the spread is just covering you in case Monteiro wins a tb (67,62,62,62 would cover for Rublev but go over).
I think the under is the way to go as you can get the hook for 20 cents. Rublev is 6-13 to the under since the French (all hard court matches) while Monteiro is 4-10 to the under since the French (all hard court matches). Rublev hasn’t been pushed beyond ten games in a set yet in 2021 and he has only been pushed beyond ten games in a set four times since the French (Thiem x2, Tsitsipas, Ugo). Monteiro showed against Travaglia last week he can be broken on serve and Rublev is breaking serve (against better comp than Thiago) at a 53% clip in 2021 so far.

I must be missing something here with Sonego. I make him a favorite, for sure, but not nearly this big of one. Sonego certainly dismantled Querrey on Monday - winning 54% of the points and generating 10 break points. But, Querrey is a guy who has had a losing hard court record going on three years now, he had a Covid scare, and off-court turmoil and he was losing to the likes of Gianluca Mager and Travaglia before the Aussie. Lopez is old, for sure. And in round one he struggled mightily against a a kid I’d legit never heard of until last week who is currently ranked outside the top 1000. He landed less than 50% of his first serves and needed two tiebreaks to advance. I’m really tempted to take Lopez on the plus games (it’s a juicy 5.5) but I’m a little gun shy after yesterday and my track record of choosing the right dog on the handicap is brutal. Pass.

I show decent value on Ruud here. I make him a -169 favorite and money has been steadily moving it toward my number all night. I wish I had gotten to this earlier. For being a ‘clay guy’ , Ruud’s hold/break numbers on a hard court have surpassed Tommy Pauls. Ruud has had a bad run of it on hard courts since the French and his loss last week to Vesely doesn’t look great on paper. But, if you dig a little, there really isn’t much wrong with it other than some bad variance - points were exactly 50/50 in the match , Ruud went 2/10 on break points while Vesely went 2/5 and Vesely won a tiebreak where Ruud only lost one, fatal, point on serve. This week Ruud destroyed Jordan Thompson. Variance swung his way, he converted all the break points and was winning 60% of the points when Thompson retired down two sets. Paul’s only been past the second round of a Slam once, at last years Aussie when Grigor Dimitrov handed him the match. I doubt Ruud repeats those mistakes.

Neither O’Connell nor Albot have a great record in Australia, they are both coming off decent upset wins in the first round on Monday and there isn’t much to choose between them statistically. I show Albot as some value on the moneyline as I make this basically a pick’em. It’s hard to back a guy coming off maybe his best win ever though (he only had three top 20 wins in his career before this week). In his defense he did back up his win over PCB at Wimbledon in 2018 and he did go the distance with Mannarino last year in Sofia after beating Shapo. O’Connell is a bit of an overs machine at the ATP level in his limited action - he split sets in both his hard court first rounds last year, to Rublev in Australia and Djere in New York. Then he played two tiebreaks with Struff on Monday. Albot isn’t known for waxing people in straight sets and this total isn’t that high.

So, Popyrin has a thing for upsets on home soil, eh? Two years ago he took #8 Dominic Thiem in the second round and this year he opens the tournament with a defeat of #15 David Goffin. Not too shabby. He actually followed up that win over Thiem with a solid, five set showing against Pouille in 2019. But, that was coming off only two completed sets against Thiem. This time Popyrin is playing after a five setter, against a grinder like Goffin and Popyrin has played a bunch of tennis already in 2021 (two super long matches last week and the five setter on Monday). Maybe it’s because it is a little later in the year and it’s not as blindingly hot as previous versions but guys defending after a five setter actually fared ok yesterday (3-3 with Laj, Fucs, and Shapo all getting the win). Harris closed out 2020 and opened 2021 both with losses to Gerasimov and then he dropped a set to Torpegaard (before trucking him 2,,2,4). Their hold/break stats are pretty similar and popyrin has actually been much more solid in tiebreaks. I’ll pass and maybe look live to see if Popyrin is breaking down (this didn’t seem to work with Bublik yesterday as Laj seems comfortable all match and therefore I probably saved myself $100). Pass.

Coric and MM, two over machines. Coric has largely tried to clean up this issue - his former penchant for dropping sets in a win has been curbed greatly (11 of his 14 wins since the re-start last August have ended in straights). McDonald is still a split set regular but he hasn’t performed up to task agains the big dogs on tour lately. Since beating Delpo in Delray Beach two years ago he is 0-4 against top tier guys and none of them have been particularily close. I lean to the over on this one but can’t pull the trigger.

Andujar is into the second round of a hard court slam? Wow. What a dream draw for Krajinovic. Robin Haase and Pablo Andjuar. Two fairly washed up clay courters in a hard court slam. Fun times. I am not sure Krajinovic has ever been lined as a -7.5 favorite but he would have covered this line in both of his wins at the US Open last fall. I show no value here but I don’t see how Krajinovic doesn’t run away with this. The scoreline on Monday may have been a little flattering to Haase as he stole a set going 2/2 on break points. Kraj won 54% of all the points, won 81% of his first serves, and maybe could have protected his second serve a little better (55%). Andujar got Quentin Halys who has struggled to stay in the top 200; Kraj should be a big step up. I think I’ll look live and see if Andujar can hold serve three of four times, which should get the live spread down to -6.5 or even -6.

All the talk of sweet draws for Nadal and Medvedev gets a not-match-fit Pospisil in round one and a true clay courter in round two. I’ve written many times that once Meds gets rolling with the return game early in the week at a tournament it is lights out. He broke Pospisil five times in thirteen games, good for 38%. Meds obviously wins this match in a rout but asking someone to cover 11 games is a steep request. Something similar to 62,62,3 would have to be the scroreline and that is Rafa on clay level. As far as I can tell, Meds has done it four times - 3 times at the US Open and once at the 2019 Aussie. I think I’ll tak the same approach as the one with Kraj - wait and see if RCB holds serve two or three times and once Meds is warmed up, grab his handicap live.

I’m on Alacarz -3.5 and the under because I think Ymer got extremely lucky in round one. Like, Aladdin’s Lamp lucky. I think the prodigy will roll.

I’m on the Fog/Caruso under38. I’m not supposed to bet Fog matches. He’s a train wreck. But, he looks like he cares - he destroyed Herbert and as long as he was tying at the ATP Cup, he had results. This under works better than the spread because if Fog rolls, it comes in; if Fog quits, it still probably comes in.

I’m on ADM/Cuevas u31 because ADM should roll Cuevas on a hard court. DeMinaur breaks serve traditionally in the mid to high 20% range on a hard court. This year he is clocking in at almost 40%. There is lots of leeway here with u31 compared to -8 or -8.5 on the spread and these are my favorite kind of bets.

I’m on Norrie -5.5 because well Safiullin should face a serious step up in class here.

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