ATP Aussie Open Feb 11th

In the last two days I have gone 7-17 down $800. Just fucking incredible. I have no idea what to say. I usually do well live, you can look back through the last three years of my Twitter timeline, it’s the only thing I have been good at. The last two days, I’m 1-5 in live action. I built a pretty basic model for totals late last year - it’s obviously trash. And I can’t pick a winner in a side if you told me the fucking initials of the winner - I’d find a way to screw that up too.

So, start from scratch. One match. One bet. One angle.

Djoker should roll, he has handled Fritz very easily both times they played. Fritz is coming off a crazy, draining five setter. I can’t imagine Fritz is overly competitive here. I’m staying away from this though because Djoker has had a blister issue and he inexplicably struggled with Tiafoe on Tuesday. I don’t doubt he rolls but even something like 63,63,63 looks great on paper and doesn’t get you paid.

Raonic should truck here. Again though, -5.5 is a tricky spread. It means that Raonic needs to avoid winning sets in tiebeaks or probably needs to serve first at some point (which is tricky if he doesn’t start the match serving), or both. And he probably can’t drop a set in order to cover. Fucs is coming off back to back five setters and his most recent fifth set was as stressful and tight as it gets (he was down 1*-6 in the fifth set tiebreak). I guess I am staying away because of the ‘Cinderella syndrome’. These kinds of athletes are in incredible shape - Fucs is well known for being in great shape. He seemed like he had no adverse effects after the match. Winning back to back five setters and THEN winning the match after that happens more than you might think (Coric and Fog BOTH did it just last year). Additionally, Raonic is made of glass.

Zverev has never lost to Mannarino. I don’t expect him to lose here. But, I could see Mannarino covering. He has given Zverev trouble in almost every one of their matches. I would say, take the +6.5 or avoid.

Maybe the ‘popcorn’ match of the day is Thiem vs Kyrgios. How amazing could this be? Kyrgios is not a “fit” guy so the fact that he is coming off a tough five setter makes me nervous. He gets the ‘home crowd’ and they are a rowdy bunch. He’s been super out-spoken during the pandemic about various off-court issues and maybe that motivates him. Either way, Kyrgios is on The List (with about a dozen other guys) and I usually just avoid his matches altogether.

I show a small edge on PCB but I am going to avoid it. Dimitrov is a hard guy to judge as he has some of the higest ceilings and lowest floors on tour. The Bulgarian seems to love Australia too; he’s played pretty well down there for the most part. If anything, I really like the over in this match but it is the highest total on the board, so an easy pass.

All Canadian match between two best friends, former room-mates and playing partners. Sit back and enjoy a Pepsi.

I have an outright on DSS for the second quarter. I need him to win this given I’m already behind the eight ball with my other quarter outright (Hurkacz) going out early. I’m super nervous - Karatsev is an uber talented guy who has pissed away the vast majority of his early years in tennis. But, since the re-start last August he is one of the most winning players in tennis. He went 27-5 from August to November and he is 5-0 in 2021. I mean, wow.

My only play tonight is Dusan Lajovic on the moneyline. I make him roughly a -300 favorite. Hard courts are not his preferred surface but neither are they his opponents. Both guys win about 40% on hard courts and Lajovic’s sample size on the ATP Tour is like 25x bigger. Lajovic has better hard court hold/break numbers across every year I have records for and he’s beaten Martinez both times they have played (albeit not on a hard court). I also like that Lajovic is pretty battle tested here having played Staks in round one, who is no pushover even at an advanced age, and then putting away Bublik in four tough sets. He got his ass kicked at the ATP Cup but, there is no shame in losing to Raonic and Struff (who was playing well enough to beat Raonic later in the week). Lajovic’s played high competition and Martinez should be a step down. A step down and with no real regression in sight: Lajovic is landing 71% of his first serves this week, has hit a double fault in about 17% of his games, is holding serve 83% of the time, is breaking serve 23% of the time, has saved 71% of break points he’s faced and converted 42%. None of the that is extremely out of line with his career numbers. He usually lands about 67% of his first serves, he usually double faults in about 15% of his games, his career hold percentage is 77%, while he usually saves about 60% of break points and converts about 40%. The area he may be peaking in at the moment is in breaking serve - his career break percentage is only about 20%. It’s a good thing Martinez only holds serve about 70% of the time on a hard court (he is running at 76% this week). Maybe Lajovic’s regression will come in round four. So, while I think Lajovic has played some decent comp and doesn’t have a ton of room to regress, conversely, Martinez got a basic walkover with Nishioka in the first round (he finished 61,61,61) then played a 21 year old kid coming off a five setter. Martinez got blitzed 6-1 in the first set on Tuesday and then Ruus very obviously ran out of gas. Just imagine, a week ago Martinez was losing in straight sets to Mikael Torpegaard, now he is in the third round of a Slam. I think that, if I can get non-numerical for a second, the fact that it is the third round of a Slam may motivate Dusan a little. Dusan is 30 years old. He’s been on tour a long time - he has suffered career wise by the basic fact that his best surface is clay and he has played during the same era as two or three of the best clay players of all time, not to mention two or three of the greatest players of all time. Lajovic has only made it past the third round once - he’s been stopped by some good competition (Isner, Zverev, DSS). The one time he did make to the four round, he was on his favored surface, at Roland Garros and he ran into…. Nadal, of course. There is no guarantee Zverev rolls past Mannarino and even if he does, both times Lajovic and Zverev have played the match has gone five sets. It’s hard to quantify ‘motivation’ and even harder to off-set it with ‘emotion/nerves’ but I have to believe Lajovic is jacked for this opportunity.