ATP Aussie Open Feb 12th

I get knocked down. But, I get up again!

I won a bet. Pretty sweat free too.

And a bunch of other briefly outlined leans went my way. Oh, and Rinderknech and Bonzi have been absolute piggybanks on the Challenger circuit. It’s been a good 24 hours.

Friday

I hope Rublev keeps getting by but I don’t think he is bettable right now, even with Lopez being 300 years old and coming off a four setter and a five setter. In fact, Lopez has played the most games of anyone in the bottom half of the bracket. Rublev ‘should’ roll. But, he has looked decidely sporadic so far. He is not steamrolling people. I may look live if he gets up two sets or a set and a break and Lopez is looking toast. I don’t think, if he gets a substantial lead, that Rublev will fold like Sonego did. There is no real gap or buffer in the line either, as -8 equates roughly to 63,63,64 or 63,63,75. The total is 30 which accounts for the 75 set.

Albot has only been to the third round of a slam twice in ten years on tour. That’s… not great. Both times he played big serving Americans (Querrey and Isner) and both time he kind of got lit up. So, that doens’t bode well for him as far as nerves go - I am big believer in firsts being scary (see: FAA, ATP finals) and potential lasts being nerve wracking (see: Federer, any Slam post 2015 where Djoker was present). Albot is 31 with a largely middling career for an ATP pro (no disrespect - but, one title in ten years and an average rank in the 70’s is the definition of middling in relation to his peers). I am sure the RBA upset was massive in his mind and I didn’t expect him to back it up. I think, now that he did, he’ll have some real nerves about the road ahead. I doubt he ever thought he had a shot at the second week of a Slam. On top of the possible nerves, you have the fact that Albot is simply playing out of his tree. On a hard court throughout his career, he has landed an ace in about 23% of his service games and double faulted in about 26% of his service games; he normally converts about 37% of his break opportunities and he usually carries a hold/break ratio 72/23 (in 2020 for example it was 69/20). In his two matches this week (in the first two events of the season he lost in straight to Jeremy Chardy and Federico Coria ON A HARDCOURT) he is landing an ace in 44% of his games, only double faulting in 19% of his games, converting a full 50% of his break point opportunities and running with a hold/break ratio of 86/33 (that’s 24% above his career numbers and 30% above last years numbers). The regression monster is coming for him. No doubt.
So let’s look at Ruud. He’s 22 and on the upswing. He already has three ATP finals (and one title) and this is his third straight Slam in the third round. So, nerves should be a tad more supressed. On top of the nerves, it seems he is rounding out his game from the ‘clay court specialist’ moniker. Third round at the US Open and now 3rd round at the Aussie, within 6 months (his third round losses were nothing to sneeze at either - Berrettini and Thiem). He must be salivating at getting someone like Albot here. Now, if the regression monster is coming for Albot, is there a chance it is coming for Ruud? He is hitting an ace in 48% of his service games this week as compared to 43% across his career; he is hitting a double fault in 19% of his games this week as opposed to 22% across his career; he has saved 81% of his break points and converted 53% of his opportunites compared with 63% and 35% across his career. Those last two numbers are so divergent from his norms that it is a little scary. What calms me down is that his hold/break numbers aren’t as far removed from his averages as Albots. He is holding at 90% this week and breaking at 28% against his career norms of 81% and 26%. So, really all that is happening is that he is capitalizing earlier than normal but still getting the same end results (he’s only running 11% above career norms compared to Albot’s 24%) I make Ruud about -500 here so, I see some value and I think he is less suspectible to a stumble than Albot. Also, money has come flying in on Albot, so I was lucky that I waited on this (Ruud has dropped from -300 to -260. You can get -4.5 games at Pinnacle or Bet365 as of Friday afternoon.

I make the Harris and MM match a dead heat pick’em. At current lines that means I show a small edge on McDonald. I’m going to pass that up in favour of the over. One, I am worried about a potential letdown spot for MM after a huge win over Borna Coric. It’s his third best scalp ever and certainly the one on the biggest stage. Two, MM is an over machine: if you look at his ATP data, throughout 2020 and so far in 2021 he has gone over the total in 10 of his 16 matches and he split sets in 7 of them, including his last three this week and both this week. MM is holding serve a whopping 92% so far in his two matches and is avergaing almost an ace per game. Harris is holding serve 88% of the time (only breaking 18%) and averaging more than an ace per game (at 42 aces Harris had the 6th most after two complete rounds (Bublik, Opelka, Raonic, Kokk, Kyrgios) and Zverev and Berrettini may have passed him had they had longer matches). I think this has the potential for a long match. And a lot of games in the first set…

Meds should roll. He’s easily covered 8 or 9 in both his matches thus far but he hasn’t played anyone. I can’t bet spreads this big. His 3-0 is probably a parlay piece though.

Tsitsipas crushed Ymer when they played their lone match early last year. I am not sure what that means as it was on indoor hards at a venue Tsitty likes and he went on to win the title. Ymer has obviously progressed since and is showing incredible resiliancy this week. I have bet against him in both matches and feel like I have PTSD here (poor joke, I know). Much like the Medvedev spread, this seems high, especially when Tsitty has, as described almost everywhere, the lowest break percentage of any top player on tour. The 3-0 or the 3-1 might be a better option if you want to back the Greek. I could see him winning in three but not covering.

Picks: