ATP Aussie Open Feb 14
Just no time to write at the moment. Here’s some stats and some quick thoughts.
I show the tiniest of edges on Ruud but have no desire to back against one of my two outright picks. That being said, Rublev hans’t blown anyone away this week and +8 or even probably isn’t a bad look. The total is priced for a Rublev (or Ruud) 75,75,62 kind of win. If you think it goes in straights and aren’t sure about Rublev or Ruud covering, there is two or three games built in for the twelve games sets. A 64,64,62 win still doesn’t have Rublev covering but clears the total by almost half a set.
Medvedev has never lost to McDonald but the last two matches were played when MM was possibly not 100% and the match I watched in person, in Toronto, was a war. With MM playing well this week and Meds coming off a five setter, I could see this being a closer match than people expect. Nine games seems wild. That being said, Meds covered that line in his first two matches this week and was well on his way to covering it against Krajinovic. I have an outright on Meds and will just gladly sit back and watch.
I got burned betting Berrettini the other night and I don’t think I am over it. Maybe in for a ‘revenge bet’ here. This match is probably going to be a pretty close facsimile of the match between KK and Berrettini. Both times these two have played it was tiebreak filled and Berrettini stole a set in a loss. I could see the tiebreaks happening again but I see it bring hard for Berrettini to get a set. Tsitsipas has played two tiebreaks this week and lost them both. That’s unusual for him, as Tsitty is a 57% tiebreak winner over his career. I expect that to revert back tonight. Additionally, Berrettini is a 51% tiebreak and he won three against KK and you could (as some people have on my Twitter timeline that KK gifted him those tiebreaks). Tsitty is better in every hard court category - hold/break numbers, career hard court records, 2020 on hard courts and tiebreaks. I think Tsitty rolls here, especially if Berrettini re-aggrevates whatever injury he picked up against Khachanov. I was going to grab the under to save me from the situation I faced in the Berrettini/KK match, where Berrettini didn’t cover the spread but stayed uner 40 games. The total tonight is 40.5. Instead I will take a big juicy plus money number and I will bet Tsitty 3-0 at +170 at BOL.
I can never get the Fog-Nadal rivalry right. I think more is made of it than it really is because Fog’s wins happen to have come in some high profile spots. He beat Nadal on the way to his only Masters 1000 win and he beat Nadal in a high profile night match at the US Open. But, that US Open match and the two other Fog victories all came in 2015 when Nadal was less than 100% (that year is one of the only two times he has lost at RG). The rest of the time, Nadal has rolled and it usually isn’t pretty. Fog seems super “into” it this year and Nadal wasn’t healthy prior to the event; I’ll 100% be watching this match, and Rod Laver stadium is playing pretty slow in comparsion to other courts on the compound. The total seems a touch high for the -7 spread which I thinks lets you know what the market and the books are thinking - Fog gets a set. Even if he gets blown away in a four set (6-1 or 6-2 finishes have happened for Nadal 5 times in his 12 wins) this should still get over 35 games.
Picks:
