ATP Aussie Open Feb 15

I have a little sticky note on one of my monitors. It reminds me to not bet on matches involving certain players. Fognini’s name heads that list. I always think that I’ve got it “figured out” this one time. I bet Fognini in his second match of the season this year because his opponent was older and coming off a long match in hot conditions. Fog served for the match, obviously was broken, and lost a third set tiebreak. Last night, I convinced myself that Fog would at least try to start the match, knowing if he got behind he would fade away. I thought given his form he might take one of the first two sets. Of course, he was up 4-2 in the second set and didn’t win another game. It’s my own fault.

Here is what I wrote about Djokovic before he played Raonic, “Hammering aces is definitely not in line with the way he has always played (he is averging 0.88 aces per service game this week against a career average of 0.45 aces per service game). But, it is a little more in line with the way he played last year. What’s nice about Djokovic is (and the reason why I doubt the severity of the injury) that he is very consistent, so regression is unlikely. He’s landing 67% of his first serves vs 64% across his career on hard courts; he has saved 67% of his break points faced versus 66% across his career; he is converting 42% of his break chances versus 45% during his career; he’s winning 56% of the total points, on average this week, and he normally he wins about 55%. To go with aces though, he’s holding serve 91% of the time this week and he usually holds serve 87% of the time. Conversely, he’s only breaking serve 26% of the time against 32% on his career. Is that dip due to age, quarantine, injury, level of competition? It’s tough to say but I am thinking if he is healthy he should be able to increase those numbers against someone like Raonic, who has owned.”
It’s incredible how inline that was - Djokovic’s aces dropped to 0.50 per game, he continued to land 68% of his first serves, he again saved 67% of the break points he faced and held serve 95% of the time (19/20). Conversely, he still was only able to break serve three times against Raonic, converting three of the eleven chances he created. If anything, the return game is where we could see Djoker positively regress. Since losing to Zverev at the 2018 Nitto Finals, he has handled Zverev in a fairly straighforward manner. In their last match he broke Zverev’s serve four times in a three set match. I expect, again if Djoker remains healthy, that he’ll roll. Djoker let slip in an interview that Zverev admitted to him he is suffering a similar injury. It’s just not as noticeable because Zverev hasn’t been pushed at all. Looking back, you could argue Zverev has had one of the, if not THE, easiest path to the quarters. He hasn’t dropped a set since the first one of the tournament but he hasn’t really played anyone either - Giron is an oft-injured #75 in the world, Cressy was playing in his second Slam main draw and is ranked outside the top 150, Mannarino is ranked inside the top 50 but is not known for doing damage in Slams and is now 0-6 against Zverev and finally Zverev got to play Lajovic, who while also in the top 50, is almost a pure clay courter (0.397 winner on hards) and has only made one fourth round before (way back in 2014 on clay at RG). This should be a massive step up, it should be massively nerve racking considering what will be waiting for Zverev in the semis should he win (so expect double faults), and if he is even slightly compromised this is a tall ask.

How do you not keep riding Karatsev? Books continue to offer up +4’s and +4.5’s despite the form this guy is showing and he keeps winning straight up. Diagnosing stats is kind of pointless for a match like this - Karatsev has almost no ATP data and he certainly doesn’t have any previous Slam experience; meanwhile, Dimitrov is advancing by playing half matches - PCB retired after losing the first seven games and Thiem quit halfway through the match, losing the last eleven games in a row. I have no idea what to make of Grigor’s form. Either way, I’m happy to grab the plus games and count on Grigor feeling some nerves in the late stages of a tournament, as he is wont to do.

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