ATP Tennis April 2nd

I had no plays yesterday. I liked the over in Tsitsipas-Hurkacz but I am just tracking those for now.

Friday:

Picks:
RBA ml, -116, BOL
RBA has had the much tougher (Struff, Isner and Medvedev) and more impressive path through the tournament (Sinner’s only ‘good’ win was over Khachanov and even that is debatable with Khachanov himself only having maybe two or three ‘good’ wins since the re-start last August).
RBA is holding serve 89% of the time this week and that is no joke considering he played Medvedev who is one of the best breakers of serve on tour. He is also breaking serve 26% of the time in his three matches and again that is no joke considering he beat (and broke twice) Isner who is one of the best servers on tour. Sinner is also holding 86% of the time but is breaking serve 33% of the time. One, I think Sinner has had easier competition (Gaston, Ruus, KK) and two I think Sinner has further to regress. If you look at what RBA is doing this week and compare it to his numbers this year and last year, he is pretty much right in line. Sinner is over-performing his norms (although still pretty small career sample for him) more than RBA.
RBA has been really hit or miss this year, bowing out of events in the first round or making the final in all events he has entered (we’ll count the Sinner loss as an opening match considering Ebden retired after like three games). I expect him to avenge his loss in Dubai to Sinner and make a third final in 2021.