ATP Tennis Aussie Open Feb 13th
Finished up the day 3-2, up $80. Could have been more, in my opinion but as many people pointed out, probably could have been worse too. If Harris was going to get demo’ d 1 and 4 he really could have won that tiebreak for me and cashed that over 39 ticket. Oh well. Onward.
Round 4
Is Djokovic really hurt? Or is he putting on a show, putting excuses in place just in case he goes down? We’ve seen plenty of both. In his defense, he has gotten progressively worse and progressively more reliant on his serve. He won in straights, then dropped a set to Taifoe then dropped two sets to Fritz. He went from landing nine aces in three sets against Chardy (who isn’t know for his return game) to dropping 26 on Tiafoe and 19 on Fritz. Hammering aces is definitely not in line with the way he has always played (he is averging 0.88 aces per service game this week against a career average of 0.45 aces per service game). But, it is a little more in line with the way he played last year. What’s nice about Djokovic is (and the reason why I doubt the severity of the injury) that he is very consistent, so regression is unlikely. He’s landing 67% of his first serves vs 64% across his career on hard courts; he has saved 67% of his break points faced versus 66% across his career; he is converting 42% of his break chances versus 45% during his career; he’s winning 56% of the total points, on average this week, and he normally he wins about 55%. To go with aces though, he’s holding serve 91% of the time this week and he usually holds serve 87% of the time. Conversely, he’s only breaking serve 26% of the time against 32% on his career. Is that dip due to age, quarantine, injury, level of competition? It’s tough to say but I am thinking if he is healthy he should be able to increase those numbers against someone like Raonic, who has owned. Milo is likewise playing pretty close to his career norms except in two key areas - he is winning 58% of the total points and that is because he is breaking serve a whopping 31% of the time. Those are way up from his career norms of 52% and 15%. And now he has to face someone he is 0-11 against? No thanks. I also think Raonic has benefited from one of the sweetest paths imaginable this week. He played pure clay courter Federico Coria, got a 21 year old Corentin Moutet coming off his third career fifth setter (and he quickly ran out of gas), then he got Marton Fucsovics also coming off of a five setter (and a crazy fifth set tiebreak). The road will be… a tad tougher. I’ll take Djoker on the handicap and I’ll do it at a book that voids on retirements as opposed to first sets. Djoker is either healthy and rolls or he starts to lose and quits, as his way.
Zverev and Lajovic have played twice and surprisingly Lajovic seems to give AZ some real problems. Now, someone might say they were both on clay but then you could counter with the fact that clay is arguably Zverev’s best surface too. On a hard court, I make Zverev a substantial favorite but of course I can’t seem to model lines this high. Maybe it is because Lajovic is playing so far above his career norms this week - he is serving far beyond his traditional hard court numbers. He has saved 74% of his break points this week whereas he is usually down around 57%. He is also holding serve at 83% this week, which, while far from elite on a hard court is still way above his career average of 76%. Most of the variance comes from a crazy match with Bublik in the second round that he probably shouldn’t have won. Zverev on the other hand faced his biggest stuggles in the first set of the tournament, which he lost in a tiebreak, and has been on relative cruise control since. He has won his last eight sets and has only been past ten games once, when it took him awhile to figure out Cressy’s serve. You never know when Zverev’s nerves will strike so I will do what I have done all three matches thus far, wait for him to shake them off and then hit him live.
I show value on Dimitrov but I am so burnt out betting on him that I can’t do it. Thiem has looked wobbly, getting pulled into a tiebreak with Kukuskin and then dropping two sets to Kyrgios. Of course, he still came out of every match smelling like a rose. He has a gas tank that never seems to empty and he might be in the best spot in the draw - he hasn’t been injured like Djokovic, he’ll get Djoker or Zverev after they play each other, and he gets to avoid the crap shoot that is the bottom of the draw. Dimitrov has been found wanting in almost every major match he has played - especially in the last two or three years. He comes in having held serve 31 of 32 times so far this week, which is incredible. He did get to play an injured Carreno Busta, so there is a huge asterisk here. I think Thiem will just be too much for Dimitrov but I am going to stay away - again, I show value on Dimitrov, he has a winning record against Thiem and bizarrely he is holding serve 97% of the time this week. Easy avoid.
I show value on Karatsev but I have missed the best of the line by a lot. He opened around +175 and is down to +147 currently. Karatsev is on a winning streak like you only dream about. Like I mentioned in the lead up the DSS match, he was 27-5 last year after the re-start and he is 6-0 so far this year and it hasn’t really been that much of a challenge for him. He has only dropped one set in 2021 and it was a tiebreak to Nakashima in his first match of the year, no shame in that. FAA has been known to wobble in big matches - see any one of his seven tour finals. Neither guy has been this far in a Slam before and I can’t tell who it will affect more. My guess is the nerves will fall on FAA, because, well, they always do. Auger-Aliassime hasn’t dropped a set yet this week either but he’s played Stebe and Duckworth before getting a Shapo who may have been slightly hampered by a lingering shoulder issue.
Picks:
