ATP Tennis March 23rd: Miami Qual

Is anyone surprised I could turn a 5-1 day into a 3-3 day? Went for supper thinking I was having a big day… ended up losing money. Brooksby had a brutal end to the 2nd set and Torpegaard literally fell apart from 6-3,2-2 up.

Tuesday:

I show value on a bunch of matches but there always seems to be a reason to disregard my model. Firstly, almost every number moved toward my number overnight - that’s compelling. The two major exceptions are MM-Ivo and Olivo-Nava. It is obviously hard to model a 45 year old serve bot so, I am happy to avoid that match. And it’s not surprising I can’t get close on the Nava match as Nava doesn’t even have Challenger data, let alone ATP level data.

I show value on Tabilo but he has played three weeks in a row on clay and I could see fatigue setting in. Same for Brooksby, coming off a final on Sunday and he burned me yesterday on the handicap.

The only other two matches I showed value on were Jung and Huesler. I’m going throw Jung in with Tabilo and Brooksby - his win yesterday was his first since October. I can’t be laying three games with that kind of track record, even if I show a little bit of value.

Playing Huesler.

I pretty much nailed the line on the Krueger match but I do think he’ll win. So, I am pairing him with Kokkinakis, who’s number has been moving toward mine since last night.

Picks:
Krueger + Kokkinakis ml, +113, BOL
Huesler +3, -118, BM