ATP Tennis March 25th

Another blaissé 3-3 day, down some juice. Wonderful collapse by Nishioka from 5-1 up in the third set. Koepfer was a no show, so, bad capping on my part there.

Thursday:

Model is getting closer - 7 of the 16 matches I was within 3% of the current line. Not too bad. I’m avoiding Kuku because of the unknowns with Jack Draper (just not enough ATP or even CH data). I show value on Ivashka but I think that is mainly because it is so hard to separate indoor and outdoor hard courts - I would think Kwon is almost uner-priced here and I think if I ever finish properly creating separate stats, my model would love Kwon here. I show value on Kudla but like Hanfmann yesterday I am going to avoid because his ATP hard court data is so mixed with CH level data. That leaves six plays.

Picks:
Kecmanovic -3.5, -130, BM
Mmoh +3.5, -118, BM
Martinez +2.5, -120, Bet365
Thompson ml, -139, BM
Elahi Galan ml, +100, BOL
Anderson -2, -106, BM