ATP Tennis March 27

What a nice day in Miami. A Grigor collapse from 5*-3 up in the first set was the only negative. Onto Saturday.

Saturday:

I have six matches who’s lines fall within 3% of my numbers. So, they are out.
I have four more I can cancel out real quick - I show value on Fognini but Fog is a headliner on The List, especially in the first round of a tournament (of HIS first round if he receives a bye); ditto for Paire (word for word); I show value on Ivashka again but like against Kwon I am content to throw that out due to possible skewing of data from mixing indoor and outdoor (even though he beat Kwon); and I show value on Bedene but that is easy to chalk up to having no data on Nishikori for almost two years.

That leaves six matches with value and a possible bet. I am going to throw out both Kukushkin and Sonego though because no matter how much I tweak things I can never seem to get any version of my model to ‘catch up’ to current form - especially when it’s someone who is uber hot. Karatsev and Fratangelo are both coming off titles (albeit at different levels) and it isn’t always easy to tell if this exhausts guys or envigorates them (you can search DeepDiveMedia.co for the study I did on performance after first title).

That leaves four:
Cilic ml, -126, BOL
Kokkinakis ml, +130, BOL
Hurkacz -3, -120, BM
Dzumhur +5.5, -110, BM