ATP Tennis March 30

Things are rolling, nicely.

Tuesday:

Meds/Tiafoe is within 3% of my line, so that is an easy avoid. If anything, in that match, it is probably a slam dunk over. Tiafoe has gone three sets in all three matches this week, Meds was someone I thought would be disinterested this week and he barely survived Popyrin in three long sets. I’ll avoid that total too just because when they have played in similar conditions in the US (2020 US Open and 2019 Washington) Meds has destroyed him.
I should a little value on RBA (6%) but I am going to avoid it - I have backed Isner in both his matches this week and he just seems to really enjoy Miami. He’s also 3-1 head-to-head with RBA and that is a little concerning.
The most value I show on the board is Ruusuvuori. But, I am not sure I am healthy enough to endure another Ruus match. That ending versus Ymer on Sunday was a serious heart attack. I suppose if I find a rogue +4 I’ll bet it.

Picks:
Fritz -2, -112, BOL
Bublik hasn’t dropped a set yet but, he’s played Djere, who is almost a complete clay courter, and Duckworth, who has hardly been a consistent prescence on the ATP tour the last few years. Bublik is breaking serve 37% of the time this week and is relying on this pretty heavily, as he’s been broken three times by guys who don’t normally break serve on a hard court. Bublik is usually around the high teens when it comes to brekaing serve and I am sure Fritz will bring more to the table than Djere and Ducks. If Bublik regresses at all, he won’t be able to keep up with Fritz, who is 20/21 (95%) on serve so far this week playing decent competition in Marcos Giron and Cameron Norrie.
DSS -2, -119, BM
I’m not sure Korda was as ‘dominant’ as his scoreline appeared. And DSS, on a nice slow hard court that is playing almost like clay, is quietly destroying his competition. He is breaking serve 41% of the time and has only lost eleven games in two full matches. I expect him to break Korda at will. The question will be can he hold his own deal?
Cilic +4.5, -119, BOL
I’ve backed him every round, the market doesn’t seem to be respecting him at all, and he keeps not only covering but winning outright as a dog. I don’t think he’ll beat Rublev but the Russian is due for some kind of letdown game here. Two of his compatriots dropped out yesterday and he’s got DSS and Tsitsipas and Meds potentially on the horizon. This a ‘sandwich’ game if I’ve ever seen one and I could see Cilic losing 67,46.
Raonic -2.5, -125
I’m getting to this late. He was -2 early on Monday and I foolishly waited, thinking it might drop. Instead it moved right toward my number. I’ll grab it now. These courts are basically playing like clay - I said in my outright preview (which went up in smoke in round three) that based on the trend last year from previous slow years, that this could be the slowest hard court on record. And it looks like we are headed that way, at least in tiebreak count and aces per match. And its actually helped the big serves (Cilic, Isner, Raonic) which might seem counter-intuitive. But, they are actually getting a chance on return and Raonic has taken advantage, breaking serve 33% of the time so far and hasn’t needed a tiebreak yet. He’s only faced three break points, all in the same game, so far this week and he hasn’t been broken. Here’s hoping for a 76,64 win.