ATP Great Ocean and Murray Road Feb 5th

I’m getting my ass kicked in Australia. I’d love to say it’s bad luck (Botic getting broken in the last game of a two and a half hour match to lose by the hook or rain destroying three of my outrights in the space of an hour as Hurkacz, Coric and Dimitrov all decided they would rather head (to their hotel rooms?) to the Aussie Open on a shitty rainy day and lost their second matches of the night).

But, really it’s just terrible, rushed, bad handicapping on my part. Back to basics - analayze and write.

Great Ocean

Here are two pretty unlikely semi-finalists and what appears to be a pretty classic case of server vs returner. One player is heavily relying on holding serve and is floating near the top of the class on tour in that statistical category and one is breaking serve at elite levels on a hard court. They’ve both played over 60 games on both sides of the net at this point so the sample size is finally big enough that the results might be meaningful. Thiago Monteiro is serving incredibly so far in 2021. He is holding serve 94% of the time, 64/68. He’s had three matches this year where he hasn’t been broken, including his last two. He is also breaking serve 19% of the time, which is pretty average for the tour. He had the unfortunate task of facing Isner and if you remove that match (0/11 on return) his break percentage jumps to 23%. It’s kind of hard to put into context how good he is serving though. What’s great is the fact that it isn’t even that far off his norms - he held serve 93% of the time on hard courts in an abbreviated 2020 season. Monteiro is predominately a clay player and hsi serve is pretty stout there too - his career hold percentage is 78% which is pretty solid on clay for players outside the top 25. One of the thing helping prop up Thiago’s serve numbers is the ability, so far, to avoid the double fault. He is hitting a double fault in only 14% of service games so far this season, compared to his career average of 18%. It’s been five sets since he hit a double fault, he’s won all five and he hasn’t hit one in either of his last two matches (Thompson and Alcaraz). The only time he really got into jail with faults was against Ebden when he hit 5 and unsurprisingly dropped the only set he’s lost in 2021 outside of the Isner match. His list of opponents is less than scary - Bellucci, Fancutt, and Ebden are not tour regulars, Alcaraz is like 18 years old and Thompson is regularly on the low end of the top 50. But, 94% and five straight sets without a double fault or a break of serve is impressive regardless of the competition.
Travaglia is on the opposite side of the spectrum. He is holding serve a platry 76% of the time. He is winning matches by breaking players almost at will. 31% is extreme on a hard court. And his list of opponents is much more impressive than Monteiro’s; Kecmanovic, Goffin, Querrey, Hurkacz, and Ruusuvuori being included. The concern is that these break percentages are so far outside his norms. Travaglia traditionally breaks serve in the teens. Did he make a galatic leap at age 29? Or did he play a group of guys who are prone to not holding their serve and therefore may have an inflated break percentage? He broke Carballes Baena, Bublik, and Kecmanovic as many as 5 times a piece. Their respective career hold percentages on a hard court are 72%, 78% and 79%. So maybe, despite the name brand and rank they were suspectible to being broken? The important thing to note is that Travs has now made a quarter final and a semi final in back to back events. He’s playing with great confidence (see last night versus Hurkacz) and he has no illusions about wanting to win the Aussie Open next week. I just worry that he is ripe for the regression monster.
The question becomes can Travaglia break Monteiro’s serve or will Monteiro continue to hold tight and avoid double faults? I think with a guy holding at 76% and another guy breaking at 19% that Monteiro is going to break Travaglia. He’s been broken in every match this year except the Querrey one and he has been broken in 13 of the 19 sets he’s played. I think the question is, can Travaglia keep up by breaking Monteiro?
I’ll go with the guy who is serving like a monster and take Monteiro as a dog.

Another TennisTwitter #popcornmatch. Sinner vs Khachanov should be electric. Sinner is currently being priced like he is a top 15 talent. He is painted -200 across the board right now. Impressive. He also hasn’t lost a set in 2021, albeit against pretty mid-tier talent. He is not blowing people away but, rather wining tight opening sets and then easing through the second set (4,2,4) He wasn’t broken in either of his first two matches and in his third, against Kec, he was broken twice but both times , in very Medvedev-like fashion, he either broke back immediately or within one service game. Never letting an opponent get too far ahead or never “having” to break to stay in a set is a pretty elite stuff. I show value on Khachanov at these numbers but I am loathe to fade Sinner. There is a pretty serious anti-Khachanov sentiment in the market these days - he was a dog to Anderson the other day and Anderson hasn’t been steadily healthy in like three years (2018 Wimbledon). Also, the anti-KK vibe could be coming from his new found Brad Gilbert-ness. When he does win, he is winning ugly. It has taken tiebreaks and tight sets to beat the likes of Purcell and Botic this week and even dating back to last year against a guy like Bergs in Antwerp. His wins have not been pretty. I feel like the play here is to wait for Sinner to pissibly take the first or second set and then live bet him to finish out the following set.

Murray Road

Now, here are some unlikely semi-finalists. Rain poured in and turned Friday into a double header and Wawrinka, Coric, and Dimitrov - what LOOKED like a star studded field - all decided they would rather rest up for the Aussie after sufficient prep (Wawrinka didn’t even both to suit up, granting Chardy a walk over).

And while the market has priced up Evans as a favorite, I see value here. My model is obviously not great yet but what I love are the matches where I land somewhere between 2% and 10% off the number. Big enough of a difference from the market to bet and feel like I have an edge, not outlandish enough of a difference that I worry (and I should) that my model sucks. Chardy isn’t serving much like Monteiro, who I mentioned above. But, he is when it matters. And this is not abnormal for Chardy. He goes through periods of being a quasi servebot. He’s won THREE deciding set tiebreaks already in 2021. So, while his hold percentage is only 76% , when the going gets tough, he gets tough too. And I say that because it hasn’t been against stiffs either - Fogini, Struff, and Cilic were the victims. His only loss thus far was to Bublik in the semis in Antalya and tonight will put him in back to back semi-finals in his first two events of 2021. And we know he is motivated - he has no misgivings about his chances next week, especially when he drew Djokovic in round one. He is showing that motivation on return where he is breaking serve 30% of the time, again, against some pretty big hitters (he’s also played Fritz and destroyed him).
Chardy is playing someone who has very typical top level player hard court stats this week. Evan is holding serve 88% of the time and breaking serve 24% of the time. This are pretty elite numbers until you consider he played Marcos Giron, Pedro Sousa (on a hard court) and a Borna Coric that may not have cared. Evans has struggled at the semi-final level (2-4) and I feel like if anything the walkover may have helped an aging Chardy rest up. No one, at 33, wants to play two matches in 6 hours. I have a feeling this might go long, as Chardy’s matches are wont to do this year (5 of 8 have gone over the total) and as the history between these two players shows (both of their non-clay matches have soard over the total). Evans doesn’t have an ATP title to his name and nerves at this stage could get the better of him, again. Chardy in three.

FAA with… another shot at a title? He has notoriously made six finals already (four 250’s and two 500’s) and come up empty. He survived the night of upsets by winning not one but two tiebreaks (final set against Egor, first set against Vesely before Vesely called it a night) and most feel kind of relieved to see his fellow semi-finalists. He’s faced Zverev, Tsipsipas, Monfils, and Berrettini in his last four finals. A true murderer’s row. So far this week he is playing high level tennis if only against guys outside the top 50. Good thing he’s playing (possibley two) another guy outside the top 50. Holding serve at 93% is pretty impressive and FAA has always been nails in a tiebreak - he is 2-0 this week and a career 64% winner. That’s truly incredible. I show tons of value on FAA, I’ve faded Moutet TWICE, to my detriment, and I am up for doing it a third time. Moutet’s won eight sets in a row, since dropping his opener this week against Tiafoe. That is impressive. But, it is all over the map. He was down a break in each set to Duckworth, who is barely an ATP player these days after numerous injuries, he beat a de-motivated Grigor, and he beat a true clay courter in Ramos-Vinolas (career hard court winner at about 30%). I think FAA ends the Cinderella run and goes for his first title.

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