The Tennis Database Presents Nascar at Dover
The Monster Mile! I’m going to try something different since it’s been now 30 races across two years and I’ve hit…. three outrights. Not great.
Tracks
Hard to find comparables here, so basically just Dover and Bristol and a little weighting from Darlington.
Top Tens
Ryan Newman has finished every race at this subset of tracks and data. I find that fascinating. Kevin Harvick, when he makes it to the end of a race, finishes in the top ten 86% of the time at these tracks. That’s wild. At Dover in particular, Truex and Elliott look like they will be hard to beat. Interesting not on Chase though - I can’t find a driver who has ‘come from the back’ and won at Dover. Penalties suck.
Crew Chiefs
Bubba Wallace, Kurt Busch and Harvick all look like they will get a nice bump from their pit crews today.
Laps Led
Harvick, Truex; Truex, Harvick. Larson?
Odds
Here’s my stuff. Looks like I like Truex and Hamlin, instead of Truex and Harvick, which is where I thought this was going.
The Market
I’ve marked Elliott in red because I think the penalty is severe at this particular track.
Picks:
The Tennis Database Presents The Darlington Stripe
After a couple good weeks, here’s hoping for a little luck with the Stripe.
Tracks
My comparisons this week were Homestead and Auto Club. I’m no expert and still pretty new at this - so, I won’t pretend to know why. The banking is different and the distances are not the same but, from I’ve read and been told, these are the best comparables to a very unique track.
Top Tens
Harvick, Hamlin, Kyle stand out as consistently dominant at these three tracks. And to a lesser extent Kyle Larson and Erik Jones shine at Darlington in particular.
Crew Chiefs
The big news here of course is Keselowski is without his crew chief. And Larson’s prior success here cam with someone else in the box.
Laps Led
Harvick and Larson, Harvick and Larson…
Pit Stalls
I care about pit stalls, not sure if anyone does. But, I do.
Odds:
The Market:
My picks:
If Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell finish #1 , #2, I’ll probably have to re-think my life.
The Tennis Database Presents Nascar at Kansas
First time I feel really good about a card. Tighter lines, less bets… probably means disaster.
Comparison
A lot of the research I did compared Kansas to Michigan. The banking is certainly similar but the distance felt different enough that I stuck with three 1.5 mile tracks. I guess if this blows up in my face, I’ll pay more attention to Michigan next year.
Top Tens
If you look at Top Tens for the group, the regular names all stick out. But, if you drill down to just Kansas, guys like Logano fall from 70% to 40% but guys like Bowman go from 59% up to 71%.
Crew Chiefs
If a Rodney Childers driver finishes a race, at this set of tracks, he finishes in the top ten. Simply wild.
Laps Led
Harvick, Truex, Kyle Busch. By miles. Maybe watch out for Alex Bowman…
My Odds
The Market
I know people who think tennis outright markets suck (including me!). Check out the hold percentage at BM and BOL for this race. Almost 50%.
My Bets
The Tennis Database Presents Nascar at Talladega!
Here’s hoping all my guys avoid ‘the big one’.
Tracks
It’s just the two SuperSpeedways for data this week.
Top Ten History
Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola and Stenhouse stand out as three names, not amoung the normal names, that run good here - both at finishing the race (avoid a wreck) and getting into the top ten.
Crew Chiefs
Matt McCall makes Kurt Busch pop but, I’m not allowed to bet him anymore. Justin Alexander cements my focus on Austin Dillon.
Laps Led
A lot of big names dominate this list. But, keep an eye on Stenhouse and Byron.
My Odds
It’s a frothy broth of stuff I throw in. Let’s see how it compare to the market.
Market
It seems like I bet on Logano every week… I’ not allowed to bet on Kurt… and Harvick hasn’t won at a Super Speedway in the last five years.
My Picks
The Tennis Database Presents Nascar at Richmond
Odds are moving fast. I hit the openers and they’ve already moved, so I updated the graphic to show current market as of 11:30.
I’ll just post my odds and the market.
Good luck.
Picks:
The Tennis Database presents Nascar at Martinsville
Nascar at the Paperclip.
With sportsbooks releasing head-to-heads later and later, time is tight. So, just some graphics.
Tracks:
Martinsville is pretty unique and probably doesn’t have comparables but, I picked three tracks as similar as I could find based on length and banking. I didn’t wait Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond very much.
Tops Tens at the Four Selected Tracks:
Top Tens and finishes at Martinsville:
Crew chiefs performance at the four selected tracks:
Crew Chiefs performance at Martinsville:
Laps Led at all Four and then Martinsville specifically:
Pit Stalls:
My odds:
Me vs BOL and Bet365:
My incredible amount of bets:
The Tennis Database presents: Nascar at Atlanta
Off-shore sportsbooks again waited till 11am Sunday to release head-to-heads, so, sorry that doesn’t leave me any time to compile graphics or write.
Also, BOL released about 50 match-ups, which was incredibly time consuming to filter through.
This should go swimmingly.
The Tennis Database presents: Nascar at Las Vegas
Sportsbooks continue to put up head-to-head odds later and later, so I am left with little time to actually write and explain the thought process (if anyone actually cares).
BetOnline went up at 10:30am Sunday, so, it’s speed-prep… again. This week the circuit is in Las Vegas and I’ve chosen Kansas and Chicagoland as my comparables to enahnce the sample size.
Tracks
I read some cases being made for Michigan being a comparable and Atlanta being a comparable due to tire wear. I am far from an expert and haven’t been able to properly quantify tire wear or find a true tracking system for that on the interwebs. So, I discounted Michigan due to it being a little longer of a track and I discounted Atlanta because everything I read up on last year was very adament about keeping Atlanta/Charlotte/Texas together.
Top Ten History
I like sticking to top tens as a barometer of past success because it just seems so much crazy stuff happens late in races that the winner is almost never a great indicator of who ‘ran well’.
To the surprise of no one, Harvick, Truex and Keselowski look like they are super comfortable at these three tracks, while Kyle Larson and Joey Logano seem specifically happy in the desert.
Crew Chief Top Tens
Looking at crew chiefs does nothing to dissuade anyone from liking Harvick, Truex and Keselowski. And it actually helps boost Logano and Blaney.
I might be Team Penske today. As an aside, it looks like Chris Bell’s crew chief has had plenty of success in Vegas .
Laps Led
Another method I like for trying to discern performance over finish is laps led - if your car was good enough to get to the front for at least a portion of the race than you probably know what you are doing at that track, despite whatever might have befell you on the way to the finish line.
This doesn’t change anything for Harvick and Truex. But, it does elevate Logano (who notoriously has an issue closing races in my opinion). It also elevates Kyle Busch - another guy who seems to get wrapped up in a lot of noise on the race track. Lastly, it looks like Elliott is making a push to be successful at these three tracks - especially if you remove his earlier starts at a younger age.
It does highlight the fact that Keselowski might be a bit of a vulture, not leading laps but stealing wins and top 5 or top 10 finishes.
Grid
I’m not a huge believer in starting position being of importance but it helps for DFs. I do like to study pit stall assignments though and I do throw that into my formula.
Odds:
I toss everything in a formula (on a spreadsheet) and I come up with these outright odds. I definitely still can’t get the odds low enough at the front end and I still can’t get the odds pushed out far enough for the bottom ten or so drivers but it is what is. Let’s see how they compare with the market:
There are four drivers, which seems like a lot, that I see ‘value’ on based on my numbers. There are certainly a bunch of longshots that are appetizing but I am sticking with the idea/philosophy that triple digit longshots are not worth it in Nascar.
H2H’s
This is easily the most h2h’s I’ve ever seen offered, despite the late opening of the market. I show an ‘edge’ on like 65% of them but I won’t bet them all because there are one or two metrics I don’t really talk about that I like to use to filter the h2h’s. Anyway, it will still be the biggest outlay I’ve had on a race since I started looking at Nascar.
Picks:
The Tennis Database presents: Nascar at Homestead
These sportsbooks keep releasing head-to-head matchups later and later. Which doesn’t leave me any time to write or create graphics. I’ll be out and about today, so I’ll have to move ahead without BOL H2H’s. Maybe I’ll check in if I am home before the green flag.
My apologies.
Odds:
I can tell you Harvick and Hamlin are so consistently dominate at this track that I can’t get my odds near the market. It is so skewed. They don’t win everytime (like in 2020) but they finish so well, so often the weighting is hard to manage (at least for me).
I show value on plenty of guys but, as per last season’s deep dive on winners history, I don’t feel like “longshots” win enough to merit throwing fractional units at them - so, anyone over 50/1 is out, regardless of my numbers.
That leaves three guys I show “value” on (again, that’s only if you buy what I am pitching here). Logano is super consistent here, Reddick has a ‘style’ of racing at this track named after him already (he’s like 25 years old), and is very up and down, with top 5’s offset by DNF’s.
I’m running so terrible in tennis, the best idea seems like… throw more money at Nascar! I’ve back-tested as best I can through 2016. My results seem to hold up. So, I’m going to ever so slighly increase the four H2H’s with the biggest ‘edge’.
Should be a great way to burn more cash.
Picks:
The Tennis Database presents the Daytona Road Course
The turtles have been depolyed and there will be right turns.
Both road course races that took place in 2020 happened after I stopped capping Nascar and reverted back to tennis, so this will be a first for me.
Here’s some data:
It looks like there are two distinct types of non-ovals in Nacsar - a ‘roval’, which is essentially a race on half of an oval track and half of it turned thru the infield and then actual flat road courses. So, first go and all, I weighted the histories at the Daytona and Charlotte Rovals a little more than performace at Watkins Glen or Sonoma (as far as I can tell CotA and Road America are new this year).
I accumulated the top ten finishes for all four courses and then broke it out by track. There are some obvious things that stick out immediately. Shockingly, the superstars who win all the ovals… are also really good on road courses. That sucks.
I did the same process with the crew chiefs. I’ll spare you all the screen shots but, the data here pretty much aligns with the drivers. The two guys who look like they might really benefit from their crew chiefs today are Austin Dillon and Bubba Wallace, so keep an eye on that.
Again, I performed the same data with laps led. I mentioned last year that my unfamiliarity with Nascar meant I went looking for some indicators of top performance that didn’t necessarily correlate to finishes (as last week should teach anyone). Anyway, laps led shines a real light on a small handful of drivers, most notably Chase Elliott, Martin Truex and Brad Keselowski.
I have found I care very little for the starting order at most oval tracks. It would seem that where you start does have some bearing on how you finish at a road course though, so I have factored today’s lineup into my odds.
Here are the pit stall assignments as reported by Nascar and @bobpockrass (who is a must follow on Twitter). I factor this into my odds as well.
I weight all that above info, plus two more metrics that I won’t present here, and throw it all together in a steaming pot of hot air and I get this:
I currently have 13 outs but only about 3 or 4 get outright odds up by mid-week so I have compared my odds to theirs to see if there are any bettable outrights. I have included Draftkings, even though I can’t bet there, because it seems almost everyone I talk to about Nascar betting has access to them.
I thought I was seeing things when my model, such as it is, spit out Chase Elliott at 3/1. However, once I started checking books, I realized my number was somehow… high. This is like a Djokovic at a Slam or a Nadal at Roland Garros kind of outright number. In his defense, Elliott has won, wait for it, the last FOUR road courses run in Nascar. If you go back to mid-2018 he’s won five of the last seven road courses races. That’s… absurd.
It took BetOnline until… this morning to post head-to-heads so, I won’t have time to post graphics about all of them.
Head-to-heads that were super close that I chickened out on include Harvick > AJ, Kurt > Byron, Larson > Bowman, and Logano > Byron.
Good luck
The Tennis Database presents: The Daytona 500
I’m going to try my hand at Nascar again in 2021. Unfortunately, due to some family health issues and this tennis tournament that appears to be happening in Australia… I didn’t have time to write anything for Daytona.
So, here’s a bunch of stats…. and picks. The stats are broken out into a grouping for performance at all similar tracks (only two in this case) and then isolated to just the track they are at this week (Daytona).
