Championship Week
I don’t bet look-aheads, so I know I missed Georgia -4 or -4.5 on Saturday but, so be it. Also, I’ll be on N.Ill if Rocky is confirmed - I got caught on that last week when I was not available to buy out pre-game.
Week Thirteen
Just getting out the pre-Thanksgiving games. Northern Illinois has literally nothing to play for (already locked up MAC West) but the Huskies have won 6 of their last 7 (with a weird/typical Wednesday Maction loss to Kent mixed in there) and I doubt they want to back their way into a title game. On the flip side WMU has had a massively disappointing season, have not covered four in a row and are on b2b road games to finish a campaign where they have already locked up bowl eligibility.
Happy to sell this into plus money too (bet365 and 1x let you sell too, but BM has better odds here)
Picks:
N.Ill +3, +108, BM
Missed the Rocky injury buyout opportunity and all the action on Wed, Thurs and Fri due to some personal drama. In full high gear for Saturday though.
Adding:
Week Eleven Picks
Betting into the worst of the market, betting four Group of Five games and a garbage ACC game. Recipe for success if I’ve ever seen one.
Week Ten Picks
Only nine plays, lots of chalk. May look at add Nevada and/or SDST late, depending on if Boise pulls off the upset.
Week Ten
Week Seven Picks
4-4 last week, with horrific beats on Texas and Michigan. Oh, well. Hard to believe we are on to Week Seven.
Week Six Picks
Two in week five was too little, Fourteen in weeks three and four was too many. Shooting for a middle here.
Week Six
Week Three Picks
Week Two started out hot (5-0?) and ended brutally (7-9, reverse swept on four west coast games).
Looks like 14 favorites this week, so, what could go wrong?
Having family functions on a Sunday night blows, so these aren’ t the best lines either (all good as of 8am Tuesday).
Given all that (bad previous week, late to market, all chalk), this week should go swimmingly.
Good luck
Week Two Picks
Week one was pretty fun; came out just ahead of the game, up some juice.
With some proper lead time to cap, I have a huge week two slate. No time to write about them though.
Picks:
Coastal Carolina -25, -109, BM
Virginia -10, -110, Bet365
Va Tech -20, -108, BM
Toledo +17, -103, BM
Texas A&M -17, -105, BOL
Buffalo +13.5, -110, OLG
Penn St -21.5, -105, Bet365 (waiting for this to drop to -21, line went the other way, didn’t get bet in)
BC -37, -118, BOL
Houston -7.5, -110, BOL
Memphis -4.5, -109, BM
Texas -7, BM
NC State -2.5, -108, BM
FIU ml, -120, BOL
Utah -7, -110, Bet365
ASU -33.5, -109, BM
USC -17, -108, BM
AddingMichigan -6.5, -110, BOL
Week One Picks
Jax St +17.5, -115, OLG
I don’t really player eval FCS players but I group the teams in buckets based on priors and what I know about their transfer/recruiting activity. Jax St was one of the better FCS teams in 2020 (they played rigourous games as recently as this spring), their quarterback for most of the season (Zion Webb) was their back up and he was stellar both in the air and on the ground (he was their third best rusher) and he returns. Additonally, they get back their original starter from 2020 (Zerrick Cooper) who was a beast in 2019. This offense should continue to hum and I think 17 points is a bit much. I have this closer to 14/14.5. It is currently painted across the board at +17 (Pinny, Bookmaker) and I’d be fine with that too.
NC -5.5, -108, BM
It’s the Sam Howell show. This team averaged over 40 points a game last year under obviously weird circumstances. They lose four of their top five receivers but the fill-ins are all solid - Brown, Corrales, Simmons and tight end Garrett Walhston all caught double digit passes last year, so they aren’t inexperienced. It looks like NC should be able to maintain that 40 and maybe aim to equal last year’s four 50-burgers. With a Heisman campaign already underway and a #1 draft pick slot in his sights, I think the back door will be safe if NC has a lead because I don’t think Howell comes out. Saying that, it’s pretty hard to judge priors and Va Tech has historically had the Tar Heels number AND they have “revenge” coming from last years game (if you believe in that sort of stuff). However, the stats I care about make this number -7.2 for NC and I see this as one team ascending and one team headed downward.
Oregon -19, -112, BOL
Texas -8, -108, BM
Iowa -3.5, -108, BM
Week Zero Picks
UTEP -10, -110, BOL
It’s pretty much painted -10 across the board. It opened -9 at the beginning of the month and has gradually moved up this week. I expect it will close either a juicy -10.5 or a plus money -12.5 (everything in between is pretty much a dead number). These two teams have played every year for the last 50 years, except last year because NMST cancelled it’s season. NMST has won the last three straight but UTEP has been in a massive re-build. The Miners actually scored 28+ in three of their last five games in 2020, all on the road, so the re-build is starting to bear fruit. UTEP’s QB is back for his second full season and while it’s a new OC, Dave Warner has worked with head coach Dave Dimel before, so hopefully it is an easy transition. NMST didn’t play in 2020 and tried to squeeze in two spring games in 2021 against two FCS schools and they while they scored a bunch they gave up 43 and 29 to Tarleton and Dixie St. So, the over might be a good look too (it’s 59) although these two teams have only eclipsed that about 50% in their last few match up. UTEP returns three of it’s four leaders in tackles for loss - Praise Amaewhule, Keenan Stewart, and Kelton Moss - so their DL is intact and should get into the NMST backfield a bunch.
I make this UTEP -13.5