ATP Great Ocean February 2nd
I’m going to have to do this in stages the next few days - I can’t remember having to handle two Masters series sized events while prepping for a Slam while keeping an eye on Challenger events.
Great Ocean
I’m back to the well with Sandgren. He has exceptional stats in Australia. He survived a nice scare in round one, coming off a hard quarantine and I expect a better performance. His opponent was no great shakes and that is a concern but, at least he was on home court, was already quarantined and (fun fact) has some real familiarity with Tennys (a wonderful Twitterer informed me last night they went to university together). Anyway, Caruso has no such excuses. He played Seppi and struggled just as much as Sandgren did. Seppi went 2-10 last year after the COVID break and shouldn’t be troubling someone in the top 75. Sandgren’s hold/break numbers are better across the board on a hard court and as long as he avoids multiple tiebreaks, he should win this. Also, I do expect it will go long. I could see Sandgren dropping a set (Tennys is SO prone to split set matches). I make Sandgren almost -200 so I am happy to grab him as a dog at 1xBet.
I love the under 20.5 when the spread is -5. Feels like I am stealing a game. Happy to take the under with Sinner.
There’s a lot of matches in the next slate that I don’t like. Ebden and Monteiro are two guys who do not prefer hard courts. The same goes for Cuevas and Haase, with the added factor that they are both old as dirt. I show small value on Kwon and I do love to bet him but his career record in the Southeast is lacking. If Kecmanovic had slightly better numbers on hard courts, I’d be all over him. If Kwon gets trucked, I’ll be looking at fading him hard in round one next week. I also really wanted to bet VandeZandschulp. But the line is so egeriously off I am concerned I am missing something.
I am happy to hit Thompson and PHH on the over. I should have played PHH/Cressy over but I was unsure Cressy would show up. There seems to be slightly more tiebreaks than I expected given the way this venue played last year. PHH loves a tiebreak and Thompson loves to play three sets. Thompson is 10-10 splitting sets in his last twenty matches. PHH is 10-9 splitting sets in his last twenty matches.
I stated in the outright preview that the play was to rollover Hurkacz’s moneyline to beat the outright price.
I show a 10% edge on Querrey. He trucked his way through the third set last night and I think he’s motivated to keep playing - his illusions of winning a Slam have long been crushed.
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