ATP January 11th, 2021
It can’t get any worse than it did over the weekend. An 0-5 day on Saturday and not much better on Sunday. What’s just as concerning (or even more) is I am not beating the closing line. I was just over 2% on average across all of 2020 and I am the polar opposite of that right now through four days.
Antalya
I was a big fan of Berrettini having a break out in 2018 and it actually happened in 2019. Then 2020 was a bit of a disappointment. By the end of 2020 he was a straight avoid. He has started 2021 on fire. He is holding serve 94% of the time and breaking serve 53% of the time, while landing 67% of his first serves. For reference, in 2020 he went 4-0 on the ATP Tour when landing more than 67% of his first serves. The max games he has lost in a match is… five. Of course, the major red flag is who he has played, which is exactly nobody. It is hard to look past those stats though. Bublik has had similar success so far and against slightly better competition. He is holding serve 94% and breaking serve 39% and he did that while only landing 54% of his first serves against Lamasine. My concern with Bublik, as I mentioned yesterday, is his consistency. Can he keep this up? The massive drop in his first serve may be the first sign he is starting to wane. Bublik is 5-9 for his career against top 20 guys on tour and he only covered +3.5 in one of those 9 losses. Additionally, when it concerns his wins, three of them came on indoor hards (his best surface) and only one of them came on outdoor hards. I show a decent enough percentage of value on Berrettini here and so I am going to dig in on the spread and hope he can avoid a tiebreak (there have been 10 tiebreaks so far, which seems like a lot until you consider Fog and Ruus accounted for over half of them by themselves). I also like the under. If the match goes according to my script and Berrettini wins the first set, I could see Bublik fading. He lost 21 times in 2020 and only managed to get beyond 10 games in the final set three times. When he goes own, he usually is throwing the towel. A 7-5, 6-4 or 7-6, 6-3 kind of win for Berrettini would suit me just fine.
I show an 8% edge on Struff. I suck at betting Struff matches (he’s on the same List with Tiafoe, Simon, Goffin, Fog, and Raonic). I believe the edge presented is almost entirely due to Chardy’s poor 2019. There 2019 hard court hold/break stats, their career tiebreak success rate, their career hard court winning percentage, and their head-to-head history are almost all exactly the same. Chardy showed across his first two matches he may have put 2020 way in the rearview - he’s averaging an ace every other service game, he’s been above 60% landing his first serve in both games keeping him out of double fault trouble, he’s breaking serve at a 37% clip so far against decent opposition and he’s generated 11 break points in both matches so far. Overs are only hitting at a 33% clip (14/42) if you include qualies and also only 33% if you just include the main draw (8/24). That means there will probably be at least one over in the quarter-finals and this feels like that match.
I am outright on DeMinaur for both the quarter and the tournament. I need this match. I can’t get him to the market price but I certainly think he wins. He hasn’t really played any real competition yet and he’s blown them both out (3 and 1 then 2 and 1). But Basil is in the same spot - he’s likewise played two Challenger level players, yet he’s struggled mightily. The total is set below 20, which seems a tad low despite the trend in Turkey, so, I’ll just cross my fingers and hope for ADM.
I have no idea what to make of this match. I show 8% value on Goffin, which isn’t that match (same as Struff). I do horribly with Goffin matches and I’ve already broken the Golden Rule with Fog on Sunday and I already have a bet on a Struff match in my pocket. I’m not sure I can stomach betting Goffin on a -4 spread. The good news for Goffin backers is that since facing and saving like five match points he has won 21 of the last 23 GAMES he has played and dished out two bagels. Pretty incredible. I would love to see a Travaglia win here but, I am doubtful. I could see the under being a good bet as a 6-4,6-4 final or a gives you a small cushion on the u21.5 versus the -4. Pass.
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Delray Beach
I show a pretty large number in the “value” column for Mager. Of course, I chalk that up to Harrison having no ATP level stats over the past two years. And when comparing their performances this week, I am not sure the market is wrong in making Harrison the favorite. Harrison is averaging more aces per game (0.73 to 0.56), they are both landing on average 67% of their first serves but Harrison is protecting his first serve a little better (winning 69% of first serve points to 66% for Mager), and while Mager may be holding serve more (91% to 84%) Harrison is far outpacing him in breaks of serve (42% to 27%). It’s all small sample size for sure, but when you factor in Harrison played Garin and Mager barely survived Harrison (please go look up how ridiculous the end of that match was) I think Harrison is rightly favored. Given that they are both holding serve so well and Harrison has played three tiebreaks in four matches and Mager played one against Querrey, I am going to dip my toe in the over despite how many unders have come in during this tournament.
I’m rolling over Hurkacz’s moneyline here from day one. It was the option I mentioned in the outright article instead of taking his +275 price. He destroyed Galan 6-2,6-2; faced one break point, saved it, won over 80% of his points on first serve, generated seven break points and broke serve four times. A nearly flawless match. I don’t see a reason to deviate. I’m also happy to take an under here. Delray Beach has been heavily tilted to the unders and I suspect if Hurkacz taks the first set, Quiroz may disappear.
I show a massive edge on Isner here. Not generally a fan of backing him in January but he usually doesn’t play on home soil in January. He didn’t show any signs against Monteiro that anything was different from previous years. Happy to take the cheap price on an -1 (I missed the best price yesterday).
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