ATP Tennis Jan 4, 2022
Another 1-2 day on some tight losses. Didn’t see RCB being unable to get a point on return against Laslo on a hard court. He had 6 points won on return in the first set - that’s rough. Still taking a dog and losing 5-7, 6-7 is probably what you should expect.
Monday night/Tuesday
I can’t get behind Isner at 36 just because he trucked Brayden Schnur. He does own an incredible record against Struff though. Have to assume Struff is going to want to better his performance from Saturday.
The rest of the lines look pretty tight other than Ugo. I’ll jump on the Frechman to continue to play well. He may have benefitted from Meds throwing up a bit but, he was able to break Meds serve four times. If he plays that kind of return he should be competitive with the Italian.
I show a little bit of value on Zverev, Meds and Safiullin but not enough to bet really.
Picks
Humbert +2.5, -110, BOL
Adelaide
I think maybe some people may confuse the Cerundolo’s. I don’t show JM having any prior success or really any experience on hard courts. I am not sure his clay moon ball strategy will work on an Aussie hard court. I show this line being way off.
I am not a fan of backing the Ymer brothers and Bonzi has some decent hard court numbers - but, much like Rinderknech on Saturday, you can parse out the indoor data and the numbers fall off a bit. Mikael had a nice run at the Aussie last year and made a final in Winston-Salem where conditions will have been pretty similar to here (hot, windy, summer-y).
I really hate to fade Rune but I think some of the “nextGen” lust may be rubbing off on him. He’s not Sinner or Alcaraz, right? Or even Musetti. I get that he hasn’t dropped serve yet this week but he played Ramanathan and Varillas - not exactly hard court players (Ramanathan is a career 0.325 on blue stuff). I think Moutet can keep pace, at least for a little while.
Fucs is getting some major disrespect here. This line seems really low (was even lower at open). He’s been shuffled off to Court 3 and while he finished 2021 pretty poorly, he always runs solid in Australia.
Picks
Bolt -3.5, -122, BM
M. Ymer ml, +111, BOL
Moutet +3.5, -110, BOL
Fucs -2.5, -106, BM
Melbourne
Picks
Celibilek +3.5, +100, BOL
Cressy -3.5, -102, BM
Griekspoor -1.5, -117. BOL
Botic -2.5, -116, BM