ATP Tennis June 7th

It’s been a disasterous French Open. But, grass season is on the horizon.

French Open

Novak has looked plenty comfortable this week, covering -9 in all three matches. I can never get lines to push out as far as the Big Three are usually priced, so I’ll just pass on this.
I am going to back Sinner though in a similar spot. I can get +8.5 at Bet365 and BM. Sinner has played four pretty competitive sets with Nadal (two of them here) and assuming he can avoid the brutal third set he had here last year, this bet should be fine. Nadal’s stats are down quite a bit from previous years and his serve has looked much more vulnerable to the naked eye.
I generally suck at betting Struff matches but DSS is literally rolling through this field. He hasn’t been pushed beyond ten games in a set yet and he’s only been broken four times. Much like Nadal, DSS can usually break serve almost at will, so his game as goes his serve. Holding at 92% is pretty incredible.

Stuttgart

I almost bet Querrey and Vesely but they are both just playing so bad it’s hard to justify the bet, regardless of whatever I might make the line. Querrey has barely played in 2021 and he hasn’t won a match since January. Vesely has been losing early in Challenger events this year and he was dismantled by Khachanov last week (albeit on clay).

Picks:

Sinner +8.5, -120, Bet365
Schwartzman -4, -123, BM
Pouille -2.5, -116, 1xBet
Albot ml, +100, 1xBet