ATP Tennis May 13th
After a brutal January to Mar where I lost almost 40 “units” and an amazing April where I won almost 20 “units, May has been just about pushing money back and forth. Anotehr 2-1 day, up a few bucks, making no dent.
Thursday Rome
I don’t show any value on Novak or ADF. It’s pretty easy to nail these lines when one of the big 3 isn’t a -2000 favorite.
I really wanted to bet Tsitsipas given the H2H history and the way Tsitsipas has been serving over the past six weeks. But, that line came out way high. You can see money has come in on Berrettini bring it back closer to my numbers but, still too expensive. It’s almost worth a bet on Matteo; the vaue is there. But, the potential fatigue and the head-to-head scares me off. Instead, I’ll try and hit some overs (I suck at totals, so just avoid this).
I show value on Thiem but I think that is an even bigger indicator that the market agrees with my assessment in the outright preview - Thiem probably still isn’t 100%. I’ll pass.
I have an outright on Rublev to win the quarter. That being said this line looks a little high. Their clay court numbers are super close, they’ve played six times, three since the pandemic and there isn’t a whole lot of difference. Maybe Rublev can eek one out in three sets and I get my cake and eat it too.
I show Delbo as the favorite. I bet him in qualies, I bet him against KK, and I foolishly avoided yesterday against Goffin. Maybe FAA is ‘back’ but, he barely beat Krajinovic and I am not sure what the win over DSS means given the Argentine’s similar loss to Karatsev last week. Delbo is now 12-3 on clay in 2021 and he’s beat PCB and KK. I think he has a shot.
Like Djoker, I nailed the Karatsev and Nadal lines.
I was on Zverev last week when he dismantled Kei. I guess Kei will have a better shot this week in slower conditions but, it looks like an afternoon/night match, so the cool air might help Zverev a little. I’ll take the juice.
Picks:
Tsitsipas/Berrettini o225., -125, Bet365
Tsitsipas/Berrettini o10.5 games 1st set, +175, x0.5 units, Bet365
Tsitsipas/Berrettini o12.5 games 1st set, +275, x0.5 units, Bet365
Delbonis ml, +128, BOL
Bautista Agut +2.5, -108, BM
Zverev -4, -125, BM