ATP Tennis May 28

Rough couple of days. Three quarter outrights turned into one winner and Wednesday I went 2-6, which is very fun.

Belgrade Friday

I’ve lamented many times that I can’t get my model to push out to quadruple digit numbers. I suspect that (tin foil hat time) there could be some kind of silent handshake deal here - everyone wants Djoker to compete well in Paris, players all need paycheques, everyone is grateful tournaments are happening and Belgrade 1 and 2 probably don’t happen without Djoker. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Djoker lost about two games per match on rout to the title this week.

Molcan has been impressive this week - on the surface. He hasn’t been broken on serve in main draw play but then you realize he has played literally no one of importance, he was broken four times by Herrera in qualies, and he is 0-4 against actual top 100 players in his career and none of them were that competitive. Delbo rolls.

Picks:
Delbonis -3.5, -101, BOL
Delbonis 2-0, BM, +117

Parma Friday

I show a little bit of value on Tommy Paul but I can’t pull the trigger to fade Korda. It may be a good look at an over or an o2.5 sets at plus money.

I don’t see any value in Cecc/Munar, lined right where I had it.