ATP Tennis Nov 1

Hefty card. Lots to like in Paris, where weird shit happens.

Day One

Picks
Fognini +3, -116, BM
Money has been coming in steadily on Fucs? Do people KNOW Fog has cashed in for the year? He does have a god-awful record in Paris (1-8) so he is usually checked out at this time of year but he is playing Fucs who is 3-1 against and Fucs has three wins since Wimbledon and they include the highly ranked Dennis Novak and Yosuke Watanuki!

Basilashvili -2.5, -125, BM
Always happy to fade Mannarino. I show decimal places below 10% value on Basher. He is great form, making the final in Indian Wells and losing a three setter to Berrettini in Vienna. Happy to take a swing here with some value on my numbers against a guy who prefers faster courts than we are seeing in Paris.

I show value on Delbo but I can’t back him on a hard court, no matter how slow it is. In fact, Delbo has lost NINE straight matches and I actually considered grabbing Norrie -5.

I show value on Musetti but have to avoid it - one, he is 0-3 lifetime against Djere and two, he screwed me on Sunday.

Brooksby +3, -111, BM
I know my number is off, for sure, due to Murray have limited ATP level data over the last two years and Brooksby having limited data of any kind. But, I can’t be THIS far off. Murray probably wins but Brooksby probably keeps it close and/or takes a set.

Bublik ml, +134, BM
I make this a pick’em, so pure numbers play here. Neither guy has had any success in Paris and Evans only has two wins since the US Open and they were both over broken down older guys at the end of a season.

Numbers look spot on with Laj/MM, Paire/PCB and Ivashka/ARV.

Rinderknech -2, -112, BOL
I guess I am fading Gaston for a third straight day? This should end well.

I show value on Korda and he is 2-0 vs Karatsev but hopefully the slower courts help Aslan here and I have an outright on the Russian, so I don’t want to fade that.