ATP Tennis Oct 9

Big weekend of tennis coming up!

Saturday

Picks:
Medvedev -5.5, -117, BOL
I don’t show any value on this pick by the numbers. But, my model doesn’t do a good job of encapsulating margin of victory (at least for now!). These guys have played five times. The first three sets were competitive, going over 10 games (including their first match in Toronto in 2018 where I watched it from the front row without about 12 other people before one of these players got ‘famous’). Since then, it’s been one way traffic. None of the remaining eight sets have been close.
Dimitrov -3.5, -125, Bet365
I have had zero luck playing Dimitrov the last two years. However, I show a little value here and he made the semis last week in San Diego, so presumably he is in-form.
Caruso +4, +103, BM
Pure numbers play. I show 20% value here. I think Karatsev wins but probably not comfortably. In fact, I think Karatsev probably has a great week, making a deep run - these courts, slow hards, should be a perfect fit for him.
Lajovic +3, -120, BOL
I am always happy to fade Tommy Paul. Like Karatsev, Lajovic should benefit from slow hard courts.
Nishikori -2.5, -111, BOL
Kei was tenths of a percentage point away from a play. I’m going barrel ahead anyway. He pulled himself together after a rough first set on Thursday and I think he can get past Evans on some slower courts.