Istanbul CH January 18th

Gulbis. Kind of unreal to me that this guy continues to lose this kinds of matches. I watched every second of this one and I’m sure anyone in the top 500 could have beat him. Just incredible unforced error after incredible unforced error.

Anyway, 1-1, +$2 on Sunday morning.

Qualies

The only book with qualie lines up as of noon on Sunday was 1xBet. I’m severly limited there so, I won’t post any bet here yet. But, if other books open these lines in a timely manner at some point on Sunday night I’ll look to be on Ramanathan on the moneyline, as that line looks way out of whack and Escobedo. I show almost 3% value on Escobedo with that 1xBet opener. If I can get something around -170 or better it might be worth hitting.
I show value on Jay Clarke but that is an easy avoid. Istomin is 12-5 with a title and another final across various Istanbul tournaments. No matter his form the last two years (which has created my line for Clarke) he seems comfortable in this environment.
The line on Cid Subervi/Menezes looks spot on.

Main Draw

Age may be finally catching up with Lorenzi but he can still slam serves and if this event is indoors on the surface I watched Gulbis on, then Lorenzi should be able to keep up and this is a cheap price.

The Taberner/Zapata line looks pretty close, as does the Soeda/Tabilo line.

I’m happy to fade Kovalik off clay.

Musetti lost a winnable match in Aussie qualies and I worry he may be a “clay guy” this early in his career. I’ll take Petrovic on the plus games.

Giannessi hasn’t won a non-exhibition hard court match since the qualies at the US Open in 2019.

Picks:
Lorenzi ml, -121, BOL
Celikbilek -2, -108, BOL
Petrovic +3.5, +103, BOL
Giustino -3.5, -124, BOL
Ramanathan pending lines
Escobedo pending lines