Quimper CH January 30th

It’s been a super up and down week trying to challenge the Challenger Tour. I doubt Antalya is going to play on Saturday so, I’ll wait with baited breath to see how Ilkel will let me down.

Hopefully, Korda and Quimper can help me make a dent in the deficit I’ve already created this year.

Quimper:

I basically nailed the BNak line. Less than 1% off the Pinny line. Not too bad. I do think there is a play here though. The total is set at 20.5. This feels low. Horansky may be a “clay guy” but at the Challenger level he plays pretty tight on indoor hards. Across the last three years Horansky is 17-8 to the over with a hypothetical line of 20.5 games on an indoor hard court. So far in 2021 he is 4-0. BNak has a real habit of dropping sets, kind of out of nowhere - last week in Istanbul is a couple of great examples. He hasn’t dropped one yet this week but he did get pushed to 22 games on Friday. Across the sae three sample period as Horansky, BNak is 18-9 to the over of 20.5 on indoor hards.

I’m on Korda outright, so I obviously want him to win. But, it appears he is much more suited to outdoor, medium paced courts than quicker indoor ones. He has been pushed to the brink this week and his matches have beeen riddled with tiebreaks. I make this match basically a pick’em with the way Bonzi has been playing in 2021. I’ll back Bonzi on the plus games as a mini-hedge on my outright and take the over.

Picks: