Tokyo Olympics Round 3

Summer has been gloriously busy. Had some time this morning to put the charts together. Good luck if you are using my numbers, good luck if you are fading them.

Tokyo Rd 3

No edge on Djokovic/ADF no edge.
I show value on Ivashka but that is almost 100% because Nishikori doesn’t have 2020 hard court data. So, easy avoid.
I show value on Basil and I am pretty tempted by it. What gives me pause is the head-to-head (which lots of people disregard). It’s 3-1 but all four have been super close. Basilashvili +5.5 is probably a solid bet.
I like Chardy; beating Karatsev is a nice scalp. I would think the bloom has to come off the Broady rose. I show a 14% edge on Chardy’s number.
I show a small 6% edge on DSS. KK is a headcase who routinely goes three sets. I’m sure he’ll blow a set here at some point and you could probably trade this match like crazy. I’ll be on DSS.
Tsitty and Ugo played once before and it went long. They are both holding serve at a ridiculous rate at the moment. Seems like an easy over. I show an edge on Ugo and +4 is probably a solid bet.
I don’t think anyone has had a better draw so far than Koepfer - a true clay courter and a last minute draw alternate. I show an edge on PCB and I’ll take it.
Meds/Fog line looks on point.

Picks
Chardy -2.5, -115, BM
Schwartzman ml, +119, BM
Carreno Busta -4, -106, BOL
was really close on Basil +5.5 and Ugo +4