US Open Day 12 + US Open Preview
I did not sit down to write a US Open preview this year because, I believed it was a foregone conclusion. For the first time, outside of maybe the 2019 French Open, really since I’ve been handicapping outrights and writing about them (January 2018) I felt there was only one winner. I have long been a heralder of the #nextgen. Anything to get the Big Three out of the picture. I was tired of each one of them as soon as they surpassed the greats of the last generation (Lendl and then Sampras). You can go back and read my various Slam previews, I could contort myself into any shape to convince myself Medvedev or Zverev or Thiem was going to finally ascend. I even took to counting on Federer to dethrone Djoker - going “all-in” on Federer to win Wimbledon 2019 in January of that year. I even got lucky once, hitting Thiem 28/1 at the 2020 US Open (I had him the year before and really if he hadn’t have gotten sick with the flu, I think he would have bested Nadal at the 2019 US Open). It’s all on my timeline, easy to find.
This year I have been awestruck by Novak. I am far from a fan. In fact, as I said above, I’ve never been a fan of any of the Big Three (or Big Four). Just usurpers to the Lendl and Agassi mantles I built as a kid. But, Novak has been on another level of athleticism this year. When he took down Nadal at the French (I was on Nadal to win that match) I knew this was coming. I went big on him to win Wimbledon (again see the timeline). And during Wimbledon I took a Djoker future for the US Open and reccomended everyone to do the same. He is unbeatable.
I don’t just chalk this up to 5 sets. I don’t just chalk this up to flexibility or “gumbiness”. I don’t just chalk this up to athleticism. What is happening in 2021 is … different. I compare it to maybe the way Wayne Gretzky changed hockey by playing BEHIND the opponets net. Or, maybe a more recent example, how the Golden State Warriors changed basketball by choosing three’s over two’s. I think it is something Serena was doing on the WTA tour a few years and something Tiger Woods was doing on the PGA in the early 2000’s. It’s mental. It’s a philosophical shift. He is openly only caring about Slams. When is the last time a top level male palyer has played this LITTLE tennis? He has entered NINE events in 2021. And four of them were Slams. The events he did enter that weren’t Slams? All venues where he was representing the flag (ATP CUp, Belgrade 250, Olympics, Monte Carlo). The only event he entered that didn’t fit either category? Rome. The warmup/lead up tournament MOST similar in conditions and results to its parent Slam. He lost the Rome final to Rafael Nadal. Then beat him in Roland Garros (WHERE NO ONE BEATS HIM). It’s a year long crafted plan of attack unlike anything we’ve ever seen in tennis. He wants to be the best of all time. Openly. And even though I don’t like the player or his antics or his politics, this is something I can respect.
He already owns the most Masters Series titles. No one is catching him there. He has 20 slams (about to be 21) and he is probably the favorite at this one, the 2021 Aussie, 2021 Wimbledon, the 2021 US and pending Rafa’s health and Thiem’s health, maybe the favorite at the 2021 French. He has a shot at the Calendar Slam. Something none of the modern players have had (Rod Laver is the last and only one to do it in 1969, one year after the Open Era began - how relatable that is to today’s schedule I’ll leave up to you to decide). Connors and Sampras and Edberg couldn’t win on clay; Borg didn’t care about Australia, Roger had Rafa on clay, Rafa had Roger on every other surface. But, Djoker can do it. And he can do it at the same time as he wins #21. Maybe he didn’t plan it that way but, I wouldn’t put it past him the way this season has played out.
He is 5th all time in ATP titles; he probably passes Nadal and Lendl if stays healthy for two more years and he has an outside shot at Roger and Connors if he stays healthy for four or five (and wants to play that long). He’ll tie Federer for most Slam finals this weekend (should he beat Zverev) and probably pass him sometime next year, adding that distinction to his Slam titles. In fact, he’ll probably pass Federer’s Slam semi-final mark in 2022 or 2023 too, should he stay healthy - something I would say most tennis historians thought was the ultimate unassailable number (He’s seven behid Federer in QF appearances too, so he has an outside shot at that in 2023 or 2024 too, health pending).
I think if he is true to the way he is acting and speaking these last couple months…. he fucking gets it all.
Tennis observers will point to Zverev beating him at the O2 or at the Olympics. To that I say, who keeps track of that? Andy Murray has TWO Olympic Gold Medals. does that mean anything in relation to the Big Three? No. Please, try and name the 2004 Gold Medal winner. Or the ‘92 winner. Tennis observers will point to Novak’s struggles this week. To that I say, I honestly think it’s part of the plan. His year long, well crafted plan. He knows he is better than everyone else on the tour. Like, really knows it. In his bones. He beat the best of all time on his court in the 2019 Wimbledon finals. Then he beat the other best of all time on his court at the 2021 French. I really think this is about management. Pain management, exertion management. Fatigue management. It’s a small, five match, 10 day sample but look at his stats - you can’t read it any other way. In first sets this tourney he is holding serve 83% of the time and breaking serve 23% of the time; he is routinely 65% of his first serves and winning 70% of his first serve points. He has lost the first set three times in five matches. The second set hasn’t been much better - he is holding serve 83% of the time, landing his first 60% and winning his first 72%. He dropped a tiebreak to Rune in the second set as well. You know what happens after that though??? In the third sets this week (four of the five matches have had one, poor Tallon) he is holding serve 97% and breaking serve 49%. He is winning points on his first serve 82% of the time. In the fifth set it is even more stark. 100% service holds. 44% breaking serve. He has been broken once this week in the third or fourth set. He is breaking serve nearly 50%!!! of the time. He isn’t just winning these third and fourth sets, he is crushing them. Almost all of them include double breaks (8 of 9, Berrettini fourth set only abberation).
He is using the first sets and some of the second sets to figure these guys out, conserve energy, find the best plan of attack. All with an eye on this Sunday. It’s all part of the plan. All pointed at one goal - complete and utter domination of tennis.
I think Djoker knows there is an expiration date on this. He has had injuries and setbacks. He saw first hand what happened to Andy Murray in 2016. The ultimate push to accomplish something which in turn immediately led to his demise. I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility that Novak wins on Sunday and shuts it down for the year. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we see a sharp cliff for Novak in 2022 and beyond. But, it won’t matter…
If he wins the Calendar Slam and finishes beyond Federer and Nadal in Slam count (which is undoubted at this point) he will be the greatest of all time. No more GOAT debate. It’s just over.
Picks:
Djokovic -4, -112, BOL vs Zverev
Djokovic -X -XXX vs Medvedev on Sunday
Djokovic +110 from July 9th hopefully to cash on Sunday