ATP Metz and Nur-Sultan Preview

The home stretch of the tennis season begins this week. All the Slams are in the rear-view mirror and we have a Covid-re-arranged fall schedule with the (new?) crown jewel being a mis-placed Indian Wells in mid-October. Before then, though, we get a little European indoor period. This part of the calendar is usually populated by Metz, St. Pete’s, Moscow, Stockholm, Vienna, Paris and the Asian Swing. The Asian Swing has been cancelled and we have some pop-up tournaments to fill out the empty dates and we’ll begin in Metz and Nur-Sultan. Two indoor venues that look like they are going to be polar opposite examples of indoor hard courts.

Metz is populated by a field that has become common in the Covid-age; a collection of players more suited to a 500 level event than a 250. It will be star studded thoughout and everyone should be rested and ready to bring their best too. Given the nature of the field (higher rankings), none of these guys were running aorund playing Challenger level events since the end of the US Open. Only six players in the field have seen action since they were eliminated at Flushing Meadows and two of those were in Davis Cup. This event will also play fast. In the last three years (2017, 2018 and 2019) in which Metz was held, there was a tiebreak played in 52% of matches. Moreover, there were tiebreaks played 22% of sets. Now, tiebreaks aren’t everything when considering pace but, it’s a decent barometer.

Let’s compare that with Nur-Sultan, a venue consistently used for Challenger level events. The organizers were granted an ATP 250 in 2020 during the peak of Covid. It’s a small sample size, so grains of salt and all, but there were only tiebreaks in 15% of the sets played. Add to that the eventual winner was John Millman and the finalist was Adrian Mannarino, you know, noted tiebreak specialists. You could conclude, simply from those two pieces of data, that if anything, the courts will play slower than Metz, if not slower than the majority of hard courts on tour.

Let’s dig into the fields.

Metz

Metz has been won by Jo-Willy Tsonga four times, Lucas Pouille once, and Gael Monfils once in the last ten years; Tsonga made the finals an additional time, as has Dominic Thiem. That’s a lot of explosive serves. The “surprise” winners here even had good serve numbers. Peter Gojowczyk might not strike anyone as an Isner clone but when he won here in 2017 he was holding serve 82% of the time. In 2014 David Goffin won here while holding serve 80% of the time. The true outlier is Gilles Simon, who has won this event three times and made the finals an additional time. He is obviously not a ‘big’ server and I’ll chalk this up to a top 25 guy (at the time) beating up a weak 250 level field (he won the event with a 10th, 16th and 30th ranking and in those three tourney titles COMBINED he beat ONE top 10 player).

In the field this week this week we have 12 guys who are holding serve more than 80% of the time in 2021; only 6 of them were able to also produce at that level in 2020 (7 if you include Popyrin at 79.4%). Top seed Hubie Hurkacz leads that pack. He’s clear of the field with an 88% hold level and a 109% hold/break number. I have two issues with him. One, the draw did him no favours. Pouille and Andy Murray might be past it but, neither guy throws in the towel and would inflict damage should they meet. The qualifier draw holds Gojo (former champ and 4th round contestant at the US Open) and young stud Holger Rune, so Hurkacz could get unlucky there too. Most importantly, the biggest floater in the draw, Ugo Humbert, landed in the top quarter. The second problem I have is that Hurkacz, albeit with a shorter career and hence a small sample size, is a career 37% winner on indoor hards (all three of his titles are on outdoor hards). Hubie is going to have a go of it making this final.
Ugo himself is one of the other six who brings a big serve. And his is really big. He has been holding serve over 85% of the time the last two years. Additionally, he loves the quicker surfaces - he has three career titles already, one on grass and one on indoor hards. Like Hurkacz, he got a terrible draw but, if anyone is coming out of the first quarter, I think it is Ugo.

Khachanov is another of the six that I considered. There’s no gimmes in this 250 though - he drew ADM and Gasquet. Richie has looked old and the Demon has looked lost but both can bring it on quick surfaces and I don’t think Khachanov has the consistency or tiebreak luck/skill (50% career) to pull this off.

Gianluca Mager has the stats and landed in what looks like the easiest quarter but, I don’t consider him a threat to win the title.

Lorenzo Sonego and second seed PCB are the other two guys who have the 80% hold threshold. The seventh guy on that list was Popyrin. They all landed in an incredible fourth quarter, which is also populated with Marton Fucsovics. Luckily for Carreno Busta, the way the draw shook out he’ll only have to face one of those three in the quarter-final. PCB gets a draw and then Struff/Mikael. He owns Struff, outside of a weird 39 game triple tiebreak match in Auckland and I, conservatively, make him -300 against Mikael. As Nick Kyrgios knows, PCB isn’t just a clay guy. He has three hard court titles, including one on indoors in Moscow.

Picks
Carreno Busta +700 x1, Bet365
Humbert, +900 x0.5, Bet365
Monfils to win quarter 3, +120 x1, Bet365

Nur-Sultan

The field in Kazakhstan is considerably less… star studded than the one in Metz. But, it could be a lot more fun. Big seeds didn’t fare well here last year, as Paire and Kecmanovic, the top two, both lost their opener. There were breaks galore last year and tons of tennis player - 69 sets (none of the last five years in Metz have exceeded 65). It’s a made up tournament with a one year history that probably won’t be around next year, so I am essentially throwing stats out the window. Who “wants” to be here? Who “needs” a title? The made up Covid events have so far done wonders for previously uncrowned tennis players who came in hungry - Millman won his first here in Nur-Sultan, Dan Evans won his first in Melbourne, Laslo Djere won his second in Sardinia, Popyrin won his first in Singapore earlier this year and Korda won his maiden in Parma.

I show value on Krajinovic, Ivashka, Ruus, Bonzi and Berankis. They are all kind of intriguing. Unfortunately, for Ivashka, Ruus and Bonzi they all landed in an incredibly hard first quarter with top seed Aslan Karatsev. How do you pick a winner from that bunch?

Berankis landed in the fourth quarter, with hometown hero Alexandre Bublik and big serving Egor Gerasimov.

Krajinovic has been to four finals, lost them all. Two if them were on indoor hards - he is nails there, carrying a 56% career winning percentage. The second quarter is pretty wide open and frankly this might be his best chance ever to grab one. The semi-final is looking like it might be his stumbling block but I like him to be the hungriest guy in the field. His number trail people like Karatsev and Ivashka but, he has had great numbers in the past and we could see some positive regression.

Picks
Krajinovic +750 x1, Bet365
Krajinovic to win Quarter 2, +150 x1, Bet365
Musetti to win Quarter 3, +240 x1, Bet365