Doha, Marseilles, Delray, Rio 2022

Four tournaments in one week is almost impossible to do well. I don’t even do three tournaments in one week well…

Doha

Botic’s number has dropped after his first round win over Fabbiano but I can still get +1800 and that is pretty close to bang on my number. I don’t show value on Khachanov or RBA but, KK was super close at open and he is playing very well both in 2022 and in his recent bigger, outdoor events (Tokyo final). RBA has an incredible history in Doha and a nice draw and his number actually appreciated overnight. Importantly, all three guys have a great break percentage on outdoor hards courts in the last 18 months.

Picks
Botic +1800, x0.5, Bet365
RBA +700, x1, Bet365
KK +700, x1, Bet365

Marseilles

I guess I am just going to keep betting on Karatsev until he turns it around. Luckily, this week he has a pretty favourable draw - Rune and some combo of PHH or Bonzi should mean Aslan gets through his quarter. Now, you are rolling the dice with Rublev and Tsitsipas or FAA; three guys who essentially all went deep last week. The price has dropped a dollar since Sunday but, it’s still really close to my number.

Picks:
Karatsev +1000, x1, Bet365

Delray

One of those times I wish I had gotten to this on Sunday or Monday… as I showed great value on Korda and a little value on TP. They are both into the quarters on Friday. Norrie might still put paid to them on Saturday, especially given his history here. But, it would be nice to have 10/1 on them. Their current numbers are +333 and +500, so I’ll pass.
Dimitrov’s number hasn’t really droppped. Kruger and then Millman/Giron is not overly concerning of a path. And Korda or Norrie in the final is probably a pick’em type line. The big worry will be Opelka or Naka in the semis. He’s one and one against Opelka, both on medium outdoor courts and Opelka should be at least a little fatigued coming off a title in Dallas so, that feels ok. Naka is a big worry if he is in fine form and a hedge might be a worthy bet if they meet on Saturday.

Picks
Dimitrov +600, x1, Bet365