Melbourne 1 and Melbourne 2 Outrights

ATP level tennis is back. Yes!

And tennis fans get two synchronous events. And they are two huge fields, 56 players in both cases - this is almost like having concurrent Masters 1000 events (albeit with lower level players). And they are being held at the Aussie Open venue, which should give some great insight into the up-coming Slam. And the fields are pretty solid - Great Ocean has eight top 50 players, if no top 10 guys, while Murray Road has the deeper ledger, with fourteen top 50 players and some real big names.

I think my angle is the same at both events; I am looking for players who have had success in January before and therefore probably success in Australia; I am looking for players who have preferrably already been in a tournament in 2021; I’m looking for guys who prefer hard courts and are probably running well over 100% in the hard court hold/break numbers while also, lastly, showing some value against my crude outright model. The draw, as always, will remain a tertiary concern.

Great Ocean Melbourne

There are eight players in the draw who carry a combined hold/break number in 2019 and 2020 that is above 100%. Kecmanovic and Kwon, while they already played in 2021, which I like, played so poorly in the first week of the season that I’d be a little concerned taking them. Neither guy shows value against my number anyway.

Jordan Thompson barely creeps over the 100% mark in both 2019 and 2020 and hard courts are his best surface. Unfortunately, he is 10-14 in January across the last five years and has never made it past the third round of an event on his home soil (at the ATP level). His outright number is only 33/1 and if he does have to go through a final three of Goffin/Hurkacz/Khachanov that number is going to be way low. I make him between +200 and +300 in each of those three matches which gives you 47/1 and that isn’t even including his first three matches this week.

That leaves, literally, the five favorites. Sinner, Goffin, Khachanov, Hurkacz, and Opelka all carry hard court hold/break numbers over 100% in 2019 and 2020. Goffin and Hurkacz played in week one this year and both had great success, easily maintaining those hold/break numbers.
I’ll start with Opelka; he hasn’t had much success in January or Australia. He’s made four trips and only has two main draw wins at the ATP level. He’s 10-9 overall and has only made it past the third round of any tournament once at any level (Playford CH). I’m a big fan and have hit an outright pick on both of Opelka’s ATP titles but, maybe travel doesn’t bode well for him - both of his titles are very Isner-like 250 level American titles.

Khachanov did have some success in Australia in 2020, performing pretty well at the ATP Cup. And he’s had some good showings with tough results in Australia - losing twice in the span of a week in 2018 to Del Po and losing in the first round in 2019 to Stan - ugly draws. The reason I’ll stay away from KK is two fold. One, he did land an unusually tough quarter. The fourth quarter sees him, Opelka, Kevin Anderson, and then there is the potential for Sinner to be sitting in the semis. That’s a tough road to hoe for 6/1. If the draw goes chalk he’ll have to go KA, Opelka, Sinner, Hubie/Goffin in order. That’s gross and I only make him a solid fav over Anderson. Everyone else is either a pick’em or a draw.

Sinner is the gem of the tour, already the hope for the next multi-slam winner, leaping frogging most, if not all of the players in the generations before him who have not achieved Slam success yet. At 18, last year was his first trip to Australia and it didn’t go well (1-3 including CH events). I also think Sinner might be a little more pre-disposed to indoor tennis, where he won his title. That being said, he got a cake of a draw. With a first round bye he’ll only have to play three matches instead of four to get out of his quarter. A “toughest” path of Rendy Lu, Bedene and a Kecmanovic who looked brutal in Antalya means I make his quarter price about +110. That’s assuming no upsets and assumig the market doesn’t make Sinner even more than -600, -400, -225. My model is obviously in a vaccuum and I think his first round match line could eaily get out to -1000 if neithe Lu nor Vukic look great. And a lot of this outright projection depends on Kecmanovic making the quarter-final. If he doesn’t I can’t get the number even close to plus territory with anyone else. I’ll take a stab at Sinner’s quarte price of -125.

Goffin is next on my hit list. He played great, after an early scare, in Antalya, losing out to the eventual champ in the semi-finals. His hold/break numbers are outstanding and he has dramatically improved his tiebreak success in the last two years. He has what looks like a pretty easy draw if Basilashvili continues to struggle and Cressy doesn’t develop into Opelka overnight. He hasn’t won a title since 2017, which is concering. That is coincidentally the only year he made a good, deep run at the Aussie (losing in the quarter-finals). He’s 14-9 overall there and if you take away that 4-1 run he’s pretty average.

I’d rather toss my money on the guy who won the first event of the year. Hubie looked pretty sharp in Delray, not dropping a set. Both his titles have come outdoors on medium paced courts and we know Melbourne slowed their courts down substantially last year. He’s proven just recently he can get after it early in the year and his draw is cake. His eighth is filled with clay courters so his first two matches should be winnable. Providing Bublik doesn’t get upset a potential last three of Bublik, Goffin, and Khachanov/Sinner is pretty daunting. I would make Hurkacz roughly a pick’em against Sinner and Khachanov and maybe a small dog to Goffin. So, I think, despite the fact that the market is only holding 16% the prices on the four or five favorites are exceedingly low. The prime option seems to be to take Hurkacz for the quarter and roll over his moneyline for the title.

Picks
Sinner 3rd Q, -125 x1, Bet365
Hurkacz 2nd Q, +130, Bet365
Hurkacz ml rollover for title

Murray Road Melbourne

Some family issues this past weekend will prevent me from finishing this preview. But, a few quick words on who I took. I would have loved to bet Wawrinka here but stayed off for two reasons - one, he has a tendency to not show up for smaller events and two, he spent what looked like most of the off-season goofing around. I’ll happily jump in and bet him match to match if he looks fit and engaged as he obviously does not have a tough path and has had success in Melbourne.

I put a half unit on Dimitrov to win the event at +750. Dimitrov has had some of his best moments in Melbourne, making multiple deep runs at at the Aussie. He will be super comfortable at this venue. He finished 2020 on a solid note, running well on both clay and hards in Rome, at Roland Garros, Antwerp and Vienna. Ugo should be a tricky quarter-final opponent but I like his chances against whoever comes out of the third quarter. Assuming the other finalist isn’t chalk, this could be a nice path. The only it does go over +750 on the rollover if he has to face Ugo/FAA/Stan. Not sure that comes to pass.

I also put a half unit on Borna Coric to win the event at +1800. Coric is my favorite quarter, the second. He does have the most worrisome floater in the draw, in Nick Kyrgios. That’s a 50/50 gamble. I’ll take my chances that NK can’t focus on tennis long enough to make this a problem. Additionlly, Coric is 2-2 against Kygios and has handled him in tiebreaks and given the courts have been slowed significantly here, Coric could fare even better. His oppo seed is Dan Evans and that will be tight too. 18/1 is pretty spot on if he has to go Kyrgios, Evans, Stan, Dimitrov. But, given Australian events hardly ever go chalky early, I expect some upsets and Coric is one of the more dependable guys on tour.

Picks:
Dimitrov +750, x0.5, Bet365
Coric +1800, x0.5, Bet365