Paris-Bercy Outright Preview

The last significant, full field, tournament on the ATP calendar kicks off Monday in Paris (Bercy). It is typically a slower indoor hard court where the field can showcase light attendance of the big dogs, and hence there has been plenty of surprise results here. Shapo made the final here in 2019, Khachanov beat Djokovic in 2018 (I called that at 33/1), Jack won here in 2017 over Filip Krajinovic, Isner made a final here, Ferrer has made two finals here and Jerzy Janowicz made a final here.

Djokovic usually rolls when he is here; five titles, six finals in thirteen trips and he has make the quarter finals every time since 2012 and eight times in total (so, basically eliminate his first three visits as a teenager and he has one of the most dominant records at any non-Rafa clay event, ever).

But, will Novak be at 100%? He hasn’t played since his loss at the US Open. It was a soul crushing, history defining loss. How easy is that to overcome? Especially when Djoker doesn’t need Masters Titles (Novak and Rafa are tied at 36, eight clear of Fed and 31 clear of the next active guy in Zverev). Does he care about passing Rafa for this? If he is unvaccinated and can’t go to Australia does he care about anything until next March? I guess it is sfae to say I’ll look at other options while respecting his dominance here - which means the bottom of the bracket.

Field

I show the smallest of edges on Medvedev. He potentially has an easy first two matches to go with his bye and he has won here before (last year). I guess the concern is, he is coming off his first Slam, it was legit (or more so than Thiem’s), and it is not like he was dominant in Indian Wells. I am also ever so slightly concerned about Aslan. I don’t show any value per se on Karatsev in the outright market but, the surface should benefit him (slow hards should be right in his wheelhouse) and Aslan has a real big brother relationship with Meds, I think (3-0 h2h including a demolition in Rome this year).

I also had an inkling that Sinner would run well here. Three of his five titles have been indoors and all five have been on hards (and within in the last 12 months). He is arguably the hottest non-slam winner on tour. His price is right where I thought it would be and I think I’ll pass just based on his piss poor performance against Tiafoe and his equally piss poor response to that loss. Maybe looking ahead to the tour finals.

The third quarter holds both Ruud and Zverev. Both have prices right where I suspected they would be and both excel on slower courts (all six of Ruud’s titles are clay and he has performed pretty well in this post-US Open run; Zverev has six clay titles and six indoor hard court titles). I think it’s worth it to take a flyer on Ruud if you think Zverev can’t back up his Vienna performance (his serving was dialed in better than maybe at any other point in his career, averaging 70% first serves in, including a whopping 82% against Tiafoe, and winning on average 83% of first serve points won) or if you think he is going to be tired/looking ahead to London.

Zverev +550, x1.5 Bet365
Ruud +3300, x0.25 Bet365
Karatsev +8000, x0.25 Bet365