Winston-Salem Open Preview
The Winston-Salem tourney is always a bit of a odd duck. It’s a 250 level event the week before a Slam with an abnormally large field (only 250 on tour calendar with 48 player draw, most 250’s are 28), played mostly at night, at a university venue, in a pretty non-descript town (no slander but it’s not huge metropolis or a state capital, it’s not a seaside resort type city, it’s like the fifth? biggest city in the state).
Over the past few years the venue has played on the fast side of medium paced (19% of sets resulted in a tiebreak in 2019 and 2018 and 15% in 2017; compare that with Cincy which is considered one of the faster events on tour and clocked in at 23% of sets this year and 31% in 2019). So, being a little on the quicker side it has still seen plenty of big serving champions and finalists who could predominantly hold serve a decent clip. In fact, the nine years this venue has been played only 5 of the 18 finalists have had a hold percentage under 80% in the year they made the final. Take a look:
Also, despite the fact that this event is played just priot to a slam you can see that most of the names on that list are super recognizable. The finalists here have tended to come from the upper echelon of the draw most times - Isner was a three and a four seed the two times he won, Berdych was a two seed when he made the final, Melzer and Monfils were both outside the top eight in 2013 but both were coming off injury, Rosol was the #7 seed, KA was the #2 seed, RBA was the top seed and Hurkacz was the three seed. Only PCB and Meds were really “surprises” and that is only really based on rank - both were highly touted players and would obviously go on to bigger and better things (this was PCB’s first title and he would back it up with Moscow two months later while this was Meds second title and he would follow it up with Tokyo in two months).
So, I’m looking for guys with a banger serve, probably ranked amoung the players with a bye, and probably someone who has been here before so I know they are not just cashing a paycheque before heading to Flushing Meadows.
Field
Given how weak the draw is there isn’t actually a lot to choose from. With Kyrgios’ withdrawal there are only nine guys in the 48 man field how hold serve at the requisite number. Lucky for me, one of them is one of the only two guys I show value on in my outright numbers. Marton Fucsovics has been here before (twice), he probably doesn’t have any illusions about running off to New York and winning the US Open, he is holding serve 82% of the time on hard courts this year (and has a helpful 22% break percentage), he should get a warm welcome with a bye and then a second round match against either Munar or Watanuki. The downside is he’ll probably have to contend with one or both of Steve Johnson and Nik Basilashvili - Johnson is for sure on the downside but he has had some big performances in 2021 and most wins of anyone in the field at this venue; Basilashvili, you never know what you are going to get, but if he is “on” he could destroy Fucs (luckily, he has a winning head-to-head against both). If he gets out of the quarter, I like his chances, because I don’t see him being a large dog to anyone in the fourth quarter (maybe a rejuvinated Goffin or a peaking Tiafoe).
The other player I show value on is the top seed, PCB. He doesn’t have the requisiste hold numbers in 2021 but you can see in previous years he has been able to achieve this. I’m slighty worried that PCB may be thinking ahead a little. He hasn’t had Slam success yet but he has been knocking on the door in the last few (semis at last years US Open and back to back quarters at the French) so he may have some desires on next week. The reason I want in is because, dating back to the start of the clay season in April, PCB has been one of the better players on tour - title in Marbella, semis in Barcelona, quarters at the French, semis in Mallorca, title in Hamburg, bronze medal in Tokyo. That’s a lot of success on all three surfaces. And as mentioned above, this field is not strong - he could have a cake walk of a path if things break right. His hardest path would be Kwon, Koepfer, Cilic, Bublik/Evans, Fucsovics/Basil/Goffin. He’s -350 vs Kwon in round two, I make him -450 vs Koefper, -195 vs Cilic, -252 vs Bublik, and -155 vs Fucs. That parlays out to +446. That’s damn close to the +400 he was listed at Bet365 last night. He has taken a little money overnight (not surprisng) but the draw would still have to break horribly for him to surpass that.
Picks
Fucsovics +2000, Bet365
Carreno Busta +375, Bet365