Week One Picks

Jax St +17.5, -115, OLG
I don’t really player eval FCS players but I group the teams in buckets based on priors and what I know about their transfer/recruiting activity. Jax St was one of the better FCS teams in 2020 (they played rigourous games as recently as this spring), their quarterback for most of the season (Zion Webb) was their back up and he was stellar both in the air and on the ground (he was their third best rusher) and he returns. Additonally, they get back their original starter from 2020 (Zerrick Cooper) who was a beast in 2019. This offense should continue to hum and I think 17 points is a bit much. I have this closer to 14/14.5. It is currently painted across the board at +17 (Pinny, Bookmaker) and I’d be fine with that too.

NC -5.5, -108, BM
It’s the Sam Howell show. This team averaged over 40 points a game last year under obviously weird circumstances. They lose four of their top five receivers but the fill-ins are all solid - Brown, Corrales, Simmons and tight end Garrett Walhston all caught double digit passes last year, so they aren’t inexperienced. It looks like NC should be able to maintain that 40 and maybe aim to equal last year’s four 50-burgers. With a Heisman campaign already underway and a #1 draft pick slot in his sights, I think the back door will be safe if NC has a lead because I don’t think Howell comes out. Saying that, it’s pretty hard to judge priors and Va Tech has historically had the Tar Heels number AND they have “revenge” coming from last years game (if you believe in that sort of stuff). However, the stats I care about make this number -7.2 for NC and I see this as one team ascending and one team headed downward.

Oregon -19, -112, BOL

Texas -8, -108, BM

Iowa -3.5, -108, BM