Week Zero Picks

UTEP -10, -110, BOL

It’s pretty much painted -10 across the board. It opened -9 at the beginning of the month and has gradually moved up this week. I expect it will close either a juicy -10.5 or a plus money -12.5 (everything in between is pretty much a dead number). These two teams have played every year for the last 50 years, except last year because NMST cancelled it’s season. NMST has won the last three straight but UTEP has been in a massive re-build. The Miners actually scored 28+ in three of their last five games in 2020, all on the road, so the re-build is starting to bear fruit. UTEP’s QB is back for his second full season and while it’s a new OC, Dave Warner has worked with head coach Dave Dimel before, so hopefully it is an easy transition. NMST didn’t play in 2020 and tried to squeeze in two spring games in 2021 against two FCS schools and they while they scored a bunch they gave up 43 and 29 to Tarleton and Dixie St. So, the over might be a good look too (it’s 59) although these two teams have only eclipsed that about 50% in their last few match up. UTEP returns three of it’s four leaders in tackles for loss - Praise Amaewhule, Keenan Stewart, and Kelton Moss - so their DL is intact and should get into the NMST backfield a bunch.
I make this UTEP -13.5