ATP Cincinnati Day 6

My lines are pretty bang on again. This is fun, finally the model seems to be lining up with openers in a really tight way.

Saturday

I don’t really show value on Medvedev or Rublev. But, I think I have to throw some money on Medvedev. Since struggling against Hurkacz mid-week in Toronto, here are Medvedev’s last ten sets: 62,62,64,63,62,62,63,63,61,61. Opelka was the only one to get to four games. Destruction. And he has owned Rublev in their five matches - won every set. This is the Medvedev we saw in 2019 when he went Washington final, Canada final, Cincinnati title, US Open final, St. Pete’s title and Shanghai title. He did that in SUCCESSION. Unreal. It’s probably really unfortunate for him that this part of the calendar was disrupted in 2020. Regardless of the lines, I think he covers the spread today.

I show value on Tsitsipas. It’s probably a little due to the head-to-head. You could argue that Zverev should be favoured because of the gold medal in Tokyo and he hasn’t lost a set this week. But, I would argue he hasn’t really played anyone - Harris is decent but is barely a top 50 guy, Pella was a gift and Ruud is not really a hard court guy (for all his recent success). Tsitsipas hasn’t looked great but he has had a much tougher path, which I would argue might be why he hasn’t looked too great. And for all his “struggles” this week, he wasn’t broken by Korda; he was only broken once (early) by Sonego and got better as that match progressed (broken first set, saves three early break points in set two, cruises set three); and he was only broken once by FAA (albeit at a ridiculously inopportune time). If you look at the first and third sets against FAA, that version of Spartipas will roll tonight.

Plays
Medvedev -4, -116, BOL
Tsistipas ml, +120, Bet365