ATP Tennis Winston-Salem Day 2
Iffy week, the week before a Slam. Dogs went 3-5 straight up on Sunday in main draw action and went 5-3 ATS. So, today should be a disaster for me.
Monday
I show value on Tung Lin Wu. I am not overly familiar with this kid but he double bagelled Donald Young on Saturday (honestly not sure what that means these days but, still…) and, more impressively, he smacked PHH on Sunday. 64,63 may not look dominating but, he generated six break points in nine return games and maybe more special, he hasn’t faced a break point yet. PHH is no gimmie. Mager hasn’t won a hard court match since January 9th, so it’s not like Wu is stepping up in class by entering the main draw. Barring some crazy nerves, he should nab a set and cover this spread.
I show value on Seppi but, I do almost every match (maybe hinting at too much reliance on priors?). This is an easy pass. He is 37 and has won one hard court main draw match this year.
Pouille? Much like Seppi, probably has too much to do with past success. Pouille took three sets to win in both qualifiers and the Frenchman hasn’t made much main draw progress since coming back from his extensive injury layoff.
I show value on Ruus and I am always down to back him on hard courts. I don't think these courts will be fast enough to prop up Kudla’s serve like grass and Ruus should be able to break Kudla a few times once they settle in. I like an in-play spread bet on Ruus in the second or third sets.
I show value on Musetti. And it might take some balls to hit this. This match will be the opposite of the immovable object vs unstoppable force (Hogan vs Andre, this is not). Coria is a career 25% winner on hard courts and Musetti has lost five matches in a row dating back to the French Open (last win June 5th). Djokovic may have broken him. I’m going to stay away.
The Popyrin/Johnson lines are dead on what I have. SJ is the winningest player in the draw when it comes to Winston-Salem histories (15 victories!) so, I suspect he’ll find a way past a slumping Popyrin.
I faded Munar last week to ill results. He has a terrible track record on hard courts and even if he wins, I’m thinking he won’t cover +3.5. Unfortunately, this is Watanuki’s first main draw ATP match since Delray Beach in 2019 and he only has about five total in his life (only win vs Robin Haase). Maybe nerves get the better of him and he gets run over but I suspect it might be closer than that. I just can’t lay a bet on a guy with this little ATP data.
The Thompson/Pella match is right on the numbers. Given the effort Pella put forth last week, I worry his foot issues might catch up with him this week. If the first set goes poorly, JT second set spread will be a banger.
Picks:
Wu +2, -111, BM
Ruusuvuori -2, -113, BOL