ATP January 10th, 2021

Would have been nice for Basilashvili to break serve one step earlier in the second set (or just hold one game on a 4*-1 lead in the first). The dance with variance.

And I should know better than backing a clay guy on a hard courts. I even mentioned it in my breakdown. First “stupid” bet of the year.

Antalya

Berrettini played a guy in the first round (Kirkin) who is essentially an ITF level player, ranked outside the top 400 and I could only find six hard court Challenger events that he has ever entered. He won a grand total of 10 points in the whole first set. Then Berrettini slowed it down and only won the second set 6-4. Berrettini went 4/5 on break points, breaking in every game where he generated one - that’s not going to continue. Additionally, as outlined in yesterday’s blog, Kuzmanov is breaking serve at an incredible rate this week. This is obviously a massive step up in competition but, I don’t think Berrettini is going to blow the Bulgarian off the court. Kuzmanov has zero experience against anyone in the top 50 and he is 2-11 against the top 100. But, what is intriguing for me is that he has hardly ever been truly blown out. He has only failed to cover a +5.5 twice against the top and in both cases they ended 6 (so, just barely). The tournament as a whole has featured a lot of short matches but the total seems a little low for the type of match I am predicting. I certainly can’t get Berrettini to the market prices. So, I think it’s Kuzmanov plus games or the over. For me, I’ll just pass.

I basically nailed this line right on the nose. Lamasine is not really a tour level player (he went 11-16 on the Challenger tour last year and five of those eleven wins came in Challenger qualifier matches. Bublik should roll him. Of course, I don’t like the -4.5 spread in a three set match and while Bublik did cover it in round one against Caruso, he only covered it three times in all of 2020. Bublik is uber inconsistent and the idea that he is going to play another near perfect game seems unlikely (he served 69%, hit 8 aces, never faced a break point and broke serve in three of the four games he generated a break point in). The talent gap is big enough that we could see another blow out but, I’ll have to pass on this.

Fog cares? That is the eternal question. I backed Chardy in round one but I’m going to have to flip sides here. I never back Fog in round one (or in round two if he had a bye) but it’s hard to see him flopping here. He eeked one out against Vrbensky, who is ranked outside the top 300, in round one so that is not inspiring. But, he didn’t lose; and the scoreline may be a little flattering to Vrbensky, as Fog didn’t save a break point and only went 3 for 10 in converting his. Chardy hasn’t won back to back matches since a dream run in Paris in 2019. But, those were indoors. To find back to back wins outdoors you have to go back to Miami 2019. Money has come pouring in on Fog (he opened around -130) and so, I’ll have to grab the spread as I am getting to this late (you can still get a juicy -1.5 at Bet365).

I actually show a bit of value on Struff here. But, I personally have drop dead bad luck reading Struff (backing or laying). A 4% edge on the moneyline isn’t going to cut it when being asked to cover a -4.5 spread. Easy pass for me.

Delray Beach

I like Hurkacz to win the event. This line seems ridiculously low. Galan struggled more than I thought he would with Andrej Martin and I am happy to start my rollover moneyline parlay outright on Hurkacz here.

How do you NOT back Ivo again? Seems motivated, was able to break serve three times, had the gas to win in three sets, and he got a day off to rest up. They played two years ago and Quiroz kept it awfully close (lost in a third set tiebreaker) and when he’s faced big men, albeit on the Challenger tour, Quiroz has done alright. I make the line… quite a bit higher just because Quiroz lacks a lot of ATP level play. I don’t see how I don’t play this and I’ll pay for a juicy moneyline. I also don’t think we see Ivo breaking serve like Stefan Edberg for the second match in a row and given their previous match, I’m on the o24.5 at Bet365.

You can tell, I’ve spent so much of my time trying to tinker with my model to get Tiafoe lines right (that’s two in a row within 3%). I suspect, just like with Donald Young, Tiafoe will eventually get the job done and maybe I could be convinced to jump in live if he gets down early. But, as it is, I’m a little overweight and already over 40 and home schooling three kids during a pandemic, I don’t need the added stress of betting Tiafoe.

I feel like the cartoon Spiderman pointing gif would totally work here if I knew how to insert one. Norrie is kind of a like a slightly younger, slightly taller, British version of Mannarino. Neither guy holds serve above 80% on a hard court and both guys break serve more than 20% of the time on hard courts. The last time they played there were 13 breaks of serve. Messy. In round one 63% of Norrie’s first serves were unreturned by Aragone - I suspect that won’t be repeatable. I don’t really see an edge on the moneyline either way. These guy both play a ton of three setters but I am scared off the over by the fact that both tournaments this week are seeing a whole bunch of second set towel throwing.

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