ATP January 9th, 2021

A really solid second day. If my luck was a little better (and Laslo Djere was a total wimp) it would have a great day. One day I‘ll run hot on retirements. One day.

We’re down to a manageable number of matches in a day now, so, let’s roll.

Antalya

It looks like the market is still treating Basilashvili like it is 2020. He certainly had a rough year, losing every match after the re-start (9 in a row). His start on Thursday wasn’t a whole lot better, losing the first set and going down a break in the second. In fact, Arnaboldi served for the match, was broken and proceeded to win only one more game in the match. So, did the Basher “find his game” or did he benefit from the collapse of lesser player?
It’s hard to say. Happily for Basilashvili he plays another “lesser player” on Saturday. Celikbilek is ranked #309th in the world and including yesterday he has a total of two tour level wins. Versus an arbitrary number, like 300, roughly his current rank, or better, Celikbilek is 19-39. Basil was able to generate 17 break points against Andreev, if he puts that kind of pressure on the Turk, I suspect he’ll break him even more often. Celikbilek had trouble breaking Zuk and himself had to fend off 10 break points. I think the win, the next opponent and the comeback will embolden Basil. I show 18% value on Basil and so I’ll take him to cover the spread.

There’s not much to see here. ADM looked the part of the outright winner I pegged him for, winning 2 and 1. But, it’s pretty hard to lay -6 in a three set match (ADM only covered -6 once last year). There are both 18.5 and 19’s available in the market. If you think ADM comes close to covering, you could take the under and have a game to spare (a 63,63 win or a 64,62 win lands you a push on the spread). Pass for me, fingers crossed for the easy win.

I show value on Ruus here but I am hesitant to pull the trigger; his sample size of stats is just too small. The other side of that coin is how dominant his performance was against Vesely. He wasn’t broken, didn’t face a break point, landed his first serve 78% of the time and won 29% of the points on return. Pretty incredible. Travaglia is solid vet and wily enough to give me pause on taking the Finn. I could see Ruus winning a lengthy one and maybe not covering - he went 8 and 6 in final sets last year across both tours. Pass.

Man, I was so close to nailing my prediction on Goffin. So close. Goffin was down match point, on return, FIVE times and fought them off before running away with the final nine games. I suspect he rights the ship now and dispatches Kuhn. Goffin hasn’t lost to someone outside the top #200 on hard courts since 2014. So, I don’t suspect I can cheer for Kuhn to ease ADM’s path. Goffin should win but, I can’t get behind paying for -5.5 games.

Delray Beach

Can I back Cristian Garin on hard courts coming off a nine week break? I knew there was going to be a lot of huge lines this week and I can’t get this one close to what Garin is being offered at. Garin didn’t win often on hard courts last year but when he did he was perfect at covering a -3.5 spread. Harrison is 4-16 against the top 100 but 0-4 against the top 50. Oddly enough, 3 of his 4 top 100 wins could be asteriked as they came against clay courters on hard courts. He’s playing a true clay courter in Garin but I think the talent level gap is big enough to overcome any failings Garin might have off of his favored surface. Garin is -2.t at Euro books and I will take it at Bet365.

How good did Querrey look? And how lucky is Mager? I would like to back Querrey here but the line seems crazy high. Both guys display a quality serve - Mager hit 9 aces against Harrison and Querrey bombed 13 aces in only two sets while only being broken once. Both guys have a chance for regression though, as Mager staved off 12 break points and Querrey staved off six.

I show crazy value on Tommy Paul. He had a great start to 2020 (final in Adelaide, 3rd rd in Melbourne, quarters in Acapulco) before his breakout campaign was interrupted by Covid. He struggled in the re-start but then ended the year with a strong showing in Paris. I faded Korda in round one and I am down to do so again here. He saved 5 break pints while converting 50% of his opportunities, both numbers ripe for regression, and he won a match by four games while only winning FOUR more points. I think Paul keeps ascending and he should roll here.

I wanted Monteiro from the moment I saw this matchup. I see value here and I’m down to fade Isner any time. I looked it up and I faded him four times last year. The last time these two played it was nothing but tiebreaks so I am happy to grab the o23.5 at Bet365 too.

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