ATP January 12th, 2021

I am 1-6 betting Aussie qualies. That’s… not good. Sitting down $90 in Antalya and sitting down almost $500 in Delray Beach. Not a great start to the season. Two days left to rectify that.

Antalya

Is Chardy back? After a brutal 2020 he is showing signs of life in the first week of the new season. He dropped from 104% hold/break to 85% in 2020. So far this week, through three matches he is 108%. It’s a super small sample size and it bears investigation. His aces are down versus his career on hard courts (0.71 per game down to 0.53) but that is probably due to age and a slightly slower surface (career hard court stats include indoors unfortunately). His hold percentage is also way down, from a career average of 82% on hards to a weekly number so far of only 72%. And it could be even worse; he has saved 24 of 33 break points. 33!!! He faced 21 break points against Struff alone. That’s a 72% save rate. His career average is 64%. In addition to saving break points at a crazy rate, he is also converting them at a crazy rate. He has converted 48% of his break points so far this week (15/31) and he is breaking serve at a 36% clip. His career averages are 36% and 17% respectively. These are all huge indicators of regression. Can he keep converting break points this often? Can he keep breaking serve every third return game? Can he keep saving break points like this? Just the fact that he has HAD to face 33 break points in three matches should be concerning. Chardy my be facing his toughest competition yet, too. Bublik hasn’t dropped a set yet this week. He’s played 59 games to Chardy’s 89, which is an incredible difference after three matches. He’s hitting more aces per game than Chardy (0.60 to 0.53), he winning a lot more first serve points (76% to 68%), he’s faced a lot less break points (33 to 14) and he’s almost generated as many as Chardy despite playing only 66% the amount of games (27 to 31). His hold/break numbers are much better than Chardy’s too - 93/33 for 126 vs 72/36 for 108. This, of course, is ripe for regression too. 92/33 is way above Bublik’s career averages of 77/17. Bublik is young enough (and previously inconsistent enough) that this could be an indication of improvement. Regardless, I think Bublik’s had the rougher path (Berrettini) and has stats that are more likely to be repeated - a last note would be that Chardy has had to go 3-1 in tiebreaks, including winning two third set tiebreaks. He is a career 46% in tiebreaks in a not small sample. I make the Kazak -263 and these are my favorite situations - when I am around 5-10% of “value” (so I know there isn’t a significant factor missing in the line) and there are no qualitative reasons (age, injury, The List, etc) for me to avoid the match. You can take -3, -110 anywhere or you can grab -2.5, -134 at BM.

The marquee match-up of the week? Has to be. I’ll be honest, when I made the ADM outright pick, I was hoping Goffin would have already packed his bags and been on his way to Australia by now. One game away against PHH. Damn.
These two are spitting images of each other - Goffin is 5’11, a buck fifty-five; ADM is 6’0, a buck fifty-two. Right handed. Two handed backhand. Run like crazy. Their hold/break numbers are within 5% of each other in each of the last three years. Their career hard court winning percentages are both over 60%. ADM has a slight advantage in tiebreaks but in a much more limited sample size. Obviously, given all that, I make this a dead pick ‘em.
As for this week, these guys are still very even and both sporting ridiculous stats. ADM hasn’t dropped a set, is winning 75% of his first serves, has only been broken three times (holding 86%) and has broken serve a whopping 60% of the time. 60%!!! (15 breaks in 25 return games). He is winning 61% of the total points played (insane). Goffin isn’t far off. And lest you worry that his messy match with PHH have ruined his stats, they are more than offset by his match with Kuhn; the German hardly bothered to show up. Goffin is winning 81% of his first serves but somehow only holding serve 79% of the time (he’s only saved 2 of 8 break points). He is surviving by breaking serve just as often as ADM (58%!!!). I suspect this will be a messy match - the over, or an over 2.5 sets, maybe the right call. For me, I’m just going to make sure I am up to watch and cheer on ADM.

Delray

The time on court/games played difference between these two is laughable. Hurkacz has played two very symmetrical matches; 62,62 and 64,64. Harrison has played five matches, including four tiebreaks - being pushed by the likes of the #254 in the world, the #949 in the world, the #256 in the world, and the #101 in the world. You could say Garin is tough opposition given he is the #22 in the world but remember he is a 36% winner on hard courts. This feels like a Hurkacz truck as Harrison’s luck should run out. Hurkacz has really been pushed, he’s 17/18 holding serve (94%) and he’s only faced four break points (3/4). Of course, he hasn’t really played anyone either - and any potential “name brand” opposition has gotten out of his way (Garin, Isner and Tiafoe the other three seeds were all either out before the semis or on the ropes as of this writing). I’ll keep this simple and just continue my rollover, trying to beat Hurkacz’s pre-flop price of +275.

Regardless of whether it is Tiafoe or Norrie, I make Korda a decent sized dog. I won’t be on this match as I don’t have enough info on Korda and if Tiafoe comes through, I just become a cheer leader.

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