ATP January 13th, 2021
Well, Tuesday worked out perfectly. In fact, it could have been even better had I pulled the trigger on the five dogs I identified in Aussie qualies. But, I was so jaded by the first two days that I held off - of course, they went 4-1.
Anyway, two tournaments, two finals, two outright picks alive. Picking up just where I left off in 2020.
Antalya
There is surpisingly not a lot to see here. I basically nailed the line - I’m within a half of a percent. These two both have only dropped one set this week, in both cases it was in second set of the semi-finals on Tuesday. They both have one decent scalp (Berrettini, Goffin) and they didn’t have performances in the semi-finals that deviated greatly from the stats I laid out yesterday. About the only big difference for Bublik was that he dialed up 15 aces in 16 service games (plus a tiebreak). He had been running quite a bit below his career average going into the match with Chardy, so that’s no real shock. He was landing 615 of his first serves and winning 76% of his first serve points this week, and he maintained those with 60% and 79% respectively on Tuesday. He saved 9/11 break points, also right in line with the rest of the week (12/14) and he converted 4/9, right there with his 9 for 27 in the first three matches. His hold/break coming in was 92/33 and he went 88/27 against Chardy. DeMinaur should know what to expect.
As for ADM, he was right in line on the serve side, landing 57% and winning 85% of first serves (he was 58% and 81% coming in). He held serve 85% and he was 87% coming in. The big difference for the Demon was he only broke Goffin four times (29% compared to the 60% he was running at). And he only generated 5 break points (4/5 on conversions vs 15/29 across his other three matches). Those return stats are concerning given the way Bublik is serving this week.
If anything, I think this match may be tighter than the lines presented. Can ADM break Bublik often enough? I think the real concern for Bublik is his inconsistency, which he has largely kept in check this week. Demon gets to more balls than almost anyone on tour. There is a real possibility he’ll just keep making Bublik hit shots till he produces some errors. I don’t think there is any value in the line and obviously I am already invested in ADM. If you want to bet this match, I suggest the over. The totals usually align with the moneyline and therefore this is sitting a tad low at 20.5. I could see a 75,63 kind of match where ADM eeks it out. Bublik is into his third final and he’s probably due but, I think ADM may be a step too far and he’s got plenty of experience in this spot (three titles in seven finals, including two in January).
Delray Beach
I haven’t been able to model Korda at all and I haven’t been close on any of his lines yet. So, I’m kind of hoping Norrie can pull off the win Tuesday night. Regardless of who ends up the opponent, I’ll be Hurkacz to complete the outright rollover. The three matches he’s played has gotten me to +106. I think the lesson here is the rollover might be a good idea if the player has five (500 level or 250 level no bye) or even six/seven (Masters or Slam) matches lined up, but it can be hard to get beyond the outright price with only four matches. Especially when all the other “name brand” players get out of his way. I thought +275 or +300 was low on Sunday but I sure didn’t know he would be able to avoid ALL three other seeded players. Hopefully whatever moneyline appears on Wednesday morning is around -200 and I can get this puppy up close to +210 because +106 is a disaster. Schools out.
Pick for Wednesday:
