ATP January 7th, 2021

The 2021 (main draw) season is here! I know things already kicked off in Turkey but I am not sure how much I will be betting that event given the time difference and the unknowns with the event.

Time to dig into Thursday’s action at Delray Beach.

Delray Beach

Kind of funny (or maybe not given the last 10 months of our collective lives) that we’re starting a hard court tournament in Florida with two, pretty much clay court only, Brazilians.
I make the line just a tad higher on Monteiro and that is probably due to the fact that Bellucci served a lengthy suspension and hasn’t generated any ATP level stats on a hard court since 2018. So, I don’t want to pay too much attention to my line.
The other stat that is immediately noticeable is that Thiago has won all three matchups. I am equally unsure how much to weight this as all three were on clay. Monteiro has a ridiculously bad record on hards at the ATP level and Bellucci for any of his failings is still a wily vet.
If you really have to bet this match, I would look at the over.

I try to keep at least a passing familiarity with anyone in the top 300. But, I’ll be honest, I know nothing about Nam. He spent much of 2019 playing Asian Challengers and ITF level events, so that’s probably why. Not sure how he has migrated up to #276 in the world (at 27 years old). Anyway, I can only get Tommy Paul to -400 no matter how I play around with the numbers and the six books I am watching seem pretty in line. Easy pass.

I mentioned in my outright preview that I liked Harrison to win a match or two. And I am getting down on him here. His track record the last two-three years is spotty, for sure. He really did have a couple of banner years (for him) in 2017 and 2018 though before being beset by injury/illness in 2019. Maybe he’s healthy, maybe not. Either way, I see value in this line. I think he should be able to handle Mager if his serve is working. Mager is largely a clay courter and his one ATP main draw hard court win came against fellow clay courter Pablo Andujar two years ago in Sweden.

Full disclosure, I have an outright, however small on Kwon. And I said in the preview, I bet him a lot. I think the way I put together my lines just favours him. I see insane value here. Kwon’s had success in Delray Beach before, he seems to play well in the U.S. and hard courts are far and away his jam. He didn’t finish 2020 particularly well but, that was clay, and I am keen to ignore that.
I think, with Korda, people may be remembering that same clay season a little too fondly. Korda may be getting better but he still on has four wins against guys in the top 100 and Isner on clay is maybe not the scalp is used to be. His other success last fall was indoors, on the Challenger tour. Delray Beach is outdoors in windy conditions (it’s running at 13mph right now) so, we’ll see how he handles that.
I think this line is too low and I feel I have to double down.

How about that? I nailed a line first day out.

I think this will be must see tv if you are a tennis fan. Too many unknowns for my liking, what with MM’s recent injury woes and Querrey’s bizarre personal situation/international incident. Plus, I don’t really see any value.
Must watch though, to see if Querrey is going to make a run against a depleted field and to see maybe where MM’s season is headed.

Picks
Ryan Harrison ml, -120, BOL
SW Kwon ml, +106, Unibet

Good luck