ATP January 8th, 2021
Well, day one was a banger. Nothing like starting out the year 0-2. The two players I bet on, Ryan Harrison and Soonwoo Kwon, went a combined 2/19 on converting break points. That’s… a bit much (their opponents went a combined 6/10, also absurd, on the other side of the spectrum).
I’ve written (and whined) about the proneness I seem to have for these kinds of matches. It’s fairly rampant and I am not overly sure how to get on the other side of it.
Anyway, onward!
Antalya
There’s nothing to see here. There are going to be a bunch of these matches this week, with massive disparities in rank. I’m not sure how to bet them - you are either banking on the favorite being motivated and covering that big spread or avoiding the match, because even if they stumble, there is still a chance they cover (see Tommy Paul on Thursday). Pass.
I’m a bit surprised by this line. Djere has never had a winning season on hards, he only won two main draw hard court matches last year, and he had an abysmal 2019 on hard courts (at one point losing six hard court matches in a row). He’s 4-12 on hards across the last two seasons and he only covered -3 in two of those wins (once against Sonego who was on like an 11 match losing streak and once against the #442 player in the world). Kuzmanov is obviously a largely Challenger level player but he is certainly ranked higher than #442. He only played four ATP level hard court matches in 2020 and the competition wasn’t great, so his hold/break stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. But, it is noteworthy that he broke serve 37% of the time. He seems to have shown that same aptitude in qualies so far this week - he broke Mirza Basic four times in eight games and then he broke Pellegrino nine times in seventeen games, good for 52%. Against Pellegrino he generated 19 break points in 17 games; that’s amazing.
I think with court time maybe giving him a small advantage in fitness and acclimatization and Djere not being a solid hard courter I am comfortable that my line is pretty accurate. I’ll grab the plus games.
Gerasimov should roll here. I even make him a bigger favorite than the market. The concern I have is that most of Gerasimov’s great hard court stats are generated indoors. Last year Egor went 6-6 outdoors while going 10-5 indoors. I am always nervous with the -4.5 game spread in a three set match. Pass.
I show tons of value on Fognini. But, there is a hard and fast rule - don’t bet Fognini in the first round. Fog went 2-6 in the first round in 2020 and he went 14-9 in the first round in 2019. Vrbensky is quite below the usual level of Fog’s opponents though, so I expect him to win. Covering -4 could be a challenge though, so this is a pass.
I’m not sure I can lay a bet with either guy here considering it’s two guys who couldn’t even get to the tennis equivalent of the Mendoza Line with their hold/break numbers on hard courts last year. 2020 was a steep drop for both guys considering they were both hovering above a 100% in 2019. Chardy had such a bad 2020, even worse than Albot’s, that’s it is pretty hard to back him here. But, I show a touch of value on him and he has beaten Albot all three times they have played without dropping a set. Additionally, outside of 2019, Albot has been traditionally a slow starter in January. I’ll take a stab at Chardy, as a dog, bouncing back from a bad 2020.
Picks:
Kuzmanov +3, -103, BOL
Chardy ml, +114, BOL
Delray Beach
I honestly don’t have enough data on these two to make an educated decision regarding the price. I get why Harrison is favored, Etcheverry is a true South America clay courter who plays about 3.5 times as many clay matches as he does hard court matches in a season (he played four hard court matches in 2020 and never won a main draw match on either Tour). But, is Harrison worthy of the price? And a price that has shortened over night (he is up over -230 at both BOL and Pinny). Harrison didn’t blow anyone away in qualies but, that should be off-set by the fact he has two matches under his belt and Etch has none. The conditions won’t be as windy today as they were yesterday (only 9mph) but the courts are still playing slower - thru three days of play there has only been one tiebreak (ironically it was Harrison) - so does that help Etcheverry make this a clay style break fest? Harrison generally plays a lot of tiebreaks and three of Etch’s four hard court matches went three sets last year, so maybe this is one of the few overs in Delray? I don’t know, seems like an easy pass.
I show a ton of value on Galan. I am 19% off the BOL line. And it is not just a fade of Martin on hards. I mean, Martin is garbage on hard courts - you have to go back to 2013 on the Challenger Tour to find a winning year for him on the surface. He has a career winning percentage below .300 on the big tour and he is a losing tiebreak across all three levels of tennis. Galan is a surprisingly adept hard courter considering he is from South America, especially on slower outdoor hards. He went 14-8 on outdoor hards last year across the ATP and CH levels and he went 11-3 on covering the -3.5 line in those 14 wins. His scalps included Kecmanovic, Eubanks twice, and Rudi Molleker; not too bad. The juice is pretty much -109 or -110 across the board, so I am in on Galan -3.5.
I don’t show a lot of value here on either side, pretty much nailed this number. Rubin seems to be one of the more affected players when it comes to the pandemic pause - he didn’t win a match after the re-start and only entered three tournaments. His ATP level hard court stats leave a lot to be desired and it’s hard to know where his game is at. Quiroz has qualies under his belt and he looked good getting it done - he was only broken three times and the only set he dropped was an 8-6 tiebreak to Escobar. I don’t have a play here but, if you have to play it I would side with the dog.
I show a bunch of value on Ivo here. And I am not sure I can buy it. It’s hard, at least for me, to capture age and diminishing returns - especially with how fast Ivo seems to be winding down (2020 ws really bad). What is interesting to note is that he still seems to have a bit of gas in January - he had a very successful start to the year in 2019 and last year he performed well at the Aussie. He pulled out of Aussie qualies to play here so, I have to assume he is motivated to make “one last run” here early in the year. The other thing making me want to bet Ivo is how bad Andujar can be on hards. He is below a 0.300 winning percentage for his career on the surface. Andujar had three wins on hard courts last year and they were less than impressive (Donald Young, Andrew Harris, Coria). You add to that how bad he is in tiebreaks and maybe this is a good draw for Ivo. They played once before and it was a typical Ivo affair, filled with four tiebreaks. I am loathe to bet o25.5, especially when there have only been TWO main matches, across both tournaments, that have gone three sets. But, how does either guy break serve? I would love an Ivo 76,76 win. The line has actually popped up even further and Karlovic is now over +170 everywhere except Bet365. Have to take that.
I’m getting pretty good at nailing the lines on Tiafoe’s matches. I just can’t pick the right sides… ever. There is almost no one on tour who plays less to the stats presented (for him or his opponent) than Tiafoe. I don’t bet his matches. I show 2% value here on his line. But, -4.5 is a scary spread and I highly doubt Tiafoe can keep it together mentally to close this out easily in two. Would love to see it though. Pass.
King rolled thru qualies. His hard court stats aren’t that far removed from Fratangelo’s. I could see this going three sets, I took the plus games.
Picks:
Galan -3.5, -109, BOL
Karlovic ml, +177, BOL
Karlovic/Andujar o25.5, -105, BOL
Karlovic/Andujar o12.5 1st set, +125, Bet365
King +3, -110, BM
Good luck