ATP Tennis April 14th

A rain-soaked 3-0 start to Monte Carlo. Who can complain? I’m impressed the tournament is on schedule given the chicken-little scenario most tennis journo’s were spouting on Sunday. Let’s hope for a full, clear skies day on Wednesday as I think I have a handful of bets.

Wednesday

I wish I had more time the last two days - it looks like I would have been on Tsitsipas over Karatsev. Disappointing that their match took place on Tuesday. Alas, real life does happen.

I’m on Djoker for the handicap. Sinner has struggled twice against Medvedev and Meds is widely considering Djoker-lite. This feels like a cheap line (and it is moving toward Sinner, so you could probably wait till morning and do better).

I show value on Hurkacz but I am going to avoid that considering Hurkacz’s career clay results and the fact that Evans had a nice win over a ‘clay court’ guy in Lajovic on Tuesday.

I show value on Cecchinato and am super tempted to take him on the moneyline. But, I try to stay away from Goffin matches - he dominates when I think he should lose and he no-shows when I think he should roll. It wouldn’t surprise me if Cecchinato won outright.

I’m on Sonego plus the games. I show value on the line and the last time we saw Zverev he was strapped up like a mummy. Zverev probably wins but, I don’t see why it should be a blowout.

I show no value on the Millman/Garin match, the line is within pennies on Garin’s side.

I’m on Popyrin here. The line has already taken off and I wish I had gotten to this early this afternoon. Pouille is coming off his first real win in quite some time and Popyrin has been on fire.

Rublev and Nadal are both such massive favorites those matches feel like an easy avoid. And I nailed the RBA/Paul line, so that’s out (although I think RBA cruises).

I show value on Dimitrov, he stomped Struff on Tuesday, he had solid history here in Monte Carlo, and Chardy has been trending backwards from his strong start to the season.

I’m on DSS. He owns Ruud 4-0 head-to-head, he has a soldi history in Monte Carlo, and Ruud beat a 17 year old in round one. So, I don’t get this line.

I see a little bit of valu on PCB and am tempted here. But, he is coming off a title and he realy struggled in round one to put away a guy he should have destroyed. Like RBA, I may jump in live if he looks good early.

I can’t bet Fog matches. And this line REALLY took off (it’s doubled since open).

I’m happy to fade Londero in Europe. It’s a big spread but Kraj should roll.

Picks:
Djoker -3.5, -113, BOL
Sonego +3.5, -106, BM
Popyrin ml, -139, Bet365
Dimitrov -3.5, -113, BM
DSS -2.5, -113, BM
Krajinovic -4.5, -119, BOL

Good luck