ATP Tennis April 15th

Another down day. Some crazy bad beats (Popyrin, Dimitrov). Some terrible calls (DSS). Onward.

Thursday

I show value on Dimitrov and Evans but that is mainly because I can’t account for the kind of money the Big Three garner. You can see Djokovic/Evans opened right at my number. Dimitrov was about 15% off. But, I don’t think I would play these two regardless of the ‘value’. This tournament has had Djoker-Nadal Sunday written all over it since the draw last Thursday.

I always get burned on Goffin matches (and recently I’ve been burned on Zverev). But, clay is Zverev’s best surface and he should be in wind up mode for Munich. I’ll take him here after Goffin was gifted a second set by Cecchinato.

Garin shows value and Bet365 is hanging +4.5. I’ll swallow that juice. Good chance this is the best match of the day and I think we could see a rare ‘over’ in Monte Carlo here.

I’ll continue to fade Pouille. Almost feel like I should fucking Martingale this one after that win over Popyrin.

I show no value in RBA/Rublev and that’s not surprising given their head-to-head history.

Ruud/PCB open up literally right on the penny. A little money has come in on PCB but not enough for me to bet Ruud.

Again, for the third day in a row, I think Fog wins but, it’s not something I can bet. I probably should have taken his quarter outright at 11/1 like I was going to on Monday.

Picks:
Zverev -3.5, -108, BM
Garin +4.5, -138, Bet365
ADF -4, -117, BM