ATP Tennis April 16th

Pretty gross 1-2 day. Zverev never looked good and apparently has been nursing a bunch of injuries. Garin couldn’t hold serve in the second set.

Friday

I show the line flipped for Evans/Goffin. Which probably isn’t that much of a surprise. I never get Goffin matches right. And given that Evans is coming off maybe the best win of his career I should probably avoid this but, a) Goffin is also coming off a pretty big win and b) both Goffin and Evans are old enough and mature enough that they should be able to avoid the letdown spot after a big win. Evans is showing, obviously, a greatly increased ability to play on clay and he’s beaten Goffin as recently as last January (albeit on hards). You can get the +2.5 games at plus money at BOL.

Nailed the ADF/Tsitty line and really don’t have the stomach for another +4.5 bet.

I show a little value on Rublev but, I can’t get in Nadal’s way. He’s lost five games in two matches.

I can’t price Fog matches. His stats don’t matter. I actually think Fog wins here, with Rafa in the headlights for Saturday. May jump on him live, early, like I did on Thursday if he looks good (he was -188 live at 2*-1 against Kraj).

Picks:
Evans +2.5, +101, BOL