ATP Tennis April 20th

Rough couple of days for me - Rublev no shows on Sunday and Krajinovic blows a 7-5, 5-2 lead on Monday. Fun times.

Belgrade Tuesday

RCB is coming off a final on Saturday, he advanced on a retirement in the first round of qualies on Sunday, he lost in the second round on Monday and got himself a Lucky Loser spot on Tuesday. I usually like to back Baena on clay, especially at altitude. But, Belgrade in only 117 meters up and as far as I can tell, if I can read a calendar right, this will be RCB’s eighth straight day of tennis. Maybe he wins but I doubt it’s a blow out. And Kwon showed enough in Marbella I can take the plus games.
I show value on Londero but I can’t bet it. Maybe he covers 3.5, it does seem high. But, Londero has one win on clay in 2021 and it was over Mischa Zverev, who has been playing ITF level tennis this year.
Bagnis is a home court guy - he made a semi-final in Cordoba and a final in Santiago. In Europe this year, even on clay, he hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 100. Kec has one title and one final, both in Eastern Europe; he’s on home soil; and clay is his best surface. Happy to get him as a dog here.
Korda hasn’t played a clay match yet in 2021. I get he is ‘breaking out’ but, I’m happy to grab Bedene as a dog.
Popyrin blew it against Pouille last week but, he gets a second shot at a winnable match this week. I’m happy to grab him as a dog too. Prior to this weeks qualies, Cerundolo was on quite a losing streak.
I show value on Cuevas, he’s a clay courter to the bone and Ruus doesn’t have a bunch of big wins on clay. I could happy watch Cuevas lose 67,67 here.

Picks:
Kwon +3.5, -112, BM
Kecmanovic ml, +102, BM
Bedene +2.5, -104, BOL
Popyrin ml, +112, BM
Cuevas +2.5, -110, Bet365

Barcelona Tuesday