ATP Tennis April 21st

Finally, a day where everything, literally every crazy point, went my way. It’s pay back for about four months of a shitty 2021. I won’t complain for the rest of the week.

Belgrade Wednesday/Thursday

Novak on home soil for the first time in TEN years (insert Grosse Pointe Blank gif)? Coming off a shock loss to (holy fuck) Dan Evans on clay? Against a guy who is not really a ‘clay guy’? Man, this is either 60,61 or 75,64. Either way, I don’t think the spread is in question. It’ll be known early. Maybe take Kwon ml or Kwon +7 and look for Djoko -5 or -6 if Kwon actually holds for 2-2.
I can’t believe I am going to put myself in this boat again… but, I show value on Kecmanovic. Imagine this, Rinderknech is holding serve more/better than Kecmanovic on clay in 2021. By almost 10%. Just makes me shake my head. Rinder’s only ever played two guys ranked in the top 100 on clay in his life though - he lost heartily to Bedene at Roland Garros last year and he beat Londero yesterday, although the only thing keeping Londero anywhere near the top 100 is Covid. I think I have to back Kecmanovic. Man, I hope he got the nerves out on Tuesday.
My stats show I should back Bedene. But, the issue is Karatsev’s ATP break-out happened on hard courts. He was epically good on clay last year but on the Ch tour. So, I know my numbers are off. I think his talent level will eventually show up on clay this spring (I took a small quarter two outright on him at +130 on Monday). So, this is an easy match to avoid.
Pretty much nailed the Popyrin/Mager line.
I guess 2021 is where I back Millman on clay? That can’t be right. I show value on the line but Millman’s career clay numbers are just too bad for me to commit. Plus, as bad as he can be Taro’s best surface is clay.
I show value on Delbo and I’m going to take the +2. Since about May 2019 till now Delbo has better clay stats than Lajovic (post 2019 Monte Carlo). Delbo is 10-5 on clay in 2021 and two of those losses were Nadal and Djere (nothing wrong there). Lajovic has one clay match under his belt and he was wiped out in Monte Carlo trying to back up his final there in 2019. Delbo is also 5-2 head to head.
My numbers seem way off on Milojevic. I’ll chalk this up to lack of ATP data and my model sucks.
I show value on Berrettini but that is obviously because of his injury. I’ll avoid it for now and if Berrettini looks solid I’ll probably bet this live.

Picks:
Kecmanovic -3, -115, BOL
Delbonis +2, -112, BM

Barcelona Wednesday/Thursday

Picks:
Sinner ml, -128, BM