ATP Tennis April 30

Gross day on Thursday. Galan and Herbert could produce and I lost some money.

Friday Munich

I show value on Zverev which seems shocking. It would appear the overall market is buying into ‘clay Ivashka’. His serving is legitametly inpressive. He wasn’t broken at all in round two. However, Zverev should be a step up in competition and the slower court speeds (relative to hards) should allow Zverev, who is an above average returner already, ample time to return the serve and get into rallies.

I show value on Kraj and that is not unexpected. I have a quarter outright on him. Struff hasn’t really been tested by someone good yet this week, getting to play Andrej Martin and Dominik Koepfer. This should be, like Ivashka, a step up in class.

I show value in Gombos, but, I think I’ve learned my lesson. Maybe Basil will win the tournament this week…

I show a little value on Millman, which I find a little strange. I was pretty surprised my line on Ruud was so low. I think he should roll. For now, I’ll just sit on the outright.

With Zverev having a slightly higher spread of -4 and Ivashka serving so well, I think I’m going to try and eliminate the tiebreak risk and do a parlay.

Picks:
Zverev + Krajinovic ml, +107, BOL

Estoril Friday

I show value on Moutet but don’t want to get in ARV’s way. He is apparently fire this year unless I have an outright on him.

I show value on Ugo but, I have the quarter outright on ADF. I’ll sit this out.

Cilic/Anderson should be a deadnut over. I continue to suck at totals though. So, I’ll pass and probably cry about it when it ends 76,76.

I show value on Garin here and I think it could be really risky backing him when he hasn’t played yet this week and Norrie is on fire. Norrie has increased his hold percentage almost 8% in just two matches. I guess I am hoping Garin’s ability to break serve plays better than Sousa’s and Pedro’s.

Pick:
Garin -3, -116, BOL