ATP Tennis April 29
As I tweeted out after play on Wednesday, the last month and change have been great: 68-43-7, 61%, +$1,897(18.97units) over the last 5 weeks.
Things are rolling.
Munich Thursday
I have an outright on Kraj to win the quarter, so I need him to win. However, I show value on Hanfmann. Kraj has a weird thing where he doesn’t really blow guys out in his first match of the week (the only big blowout first round win he has this year is over Basil, who retired mid-way through the match, and is, well, Basil). Hanfmann has some rough losses on hards this year but on clay he only has two and Sonego, who went on to win Cagliari, and Popyrin, who is serving like a beast in 2021, are nothing to sneeze at. I’ll take the +3.5 games and hope Hanfmann steals a set or serves his way to a tiebreak.
I show value on Koepfer but this is an easy pass. I got burned by Struff already this week for one. For two, Koepfer hasn’t beaten anyone (or really kept it close with anyone) on clay this year - his wins are over the #386 in the world, the #146 in the world, a nearly retired Kohl, and a Londero who is only in the top 100 because of the pandemic. Pass.
I’ll keep fading Basil, I guess, and losing money. He is a classic case of a super high ceiling (see Doha), super low floor (see every first round match since January 2020) guy. I also seem to catch him when he is on the wrong fucking level of the house for my bet. But, whatever, I like Galan, I show value on him, he is very similar in that he has wide extremes in play (beating Korda, ADM, Seyboth Wild, RCB losing to Medjedovic, Sebastien Baez, some guy with six names I’ve never heard of). Hopefully, I get ceiling Galan vs floor Basil on Thursday.
I faded Coria in round one and I am down to do it again on Thursday. I show value on Gombos and I know he is the Lucky Loser but sometimes that envigorates a player. Coria was damn lucky to beat Stebe on Monday and he’s been saddled with two straight days off - that kind of sucks and it levels the palying field with Gombos in terms of any kind of momentum (if that’s a thing). Bottom line, I make Gombos -176 and I can get him at -129 at Pinny. Done.
Picks
Hanfmann +3.5, -110, BOL
Galan ml, +106, BM
Gombos ml, -129, Pinny
Estoril Thursday