ATP Tennis April 4

Easter Sunday. Always a struggle to watch tennis through the chocolate wrappers.

Sunday:

Sinner’s stats have gotten better as the week has progressed; he’s breaking serve 3% more now than he was coming into the week - a big reason for his spot in the final, considering his holding of serve is pretty static at 80%. It’s hard to measure ‘clutch’ moments but he is saving 70% of his break points faced this week and that is up 6% over his normal success rate. Maybe more importantly is the fact that three times in five matches this week he has had to save as many as seven break points. This kid plays on the precipice, constantly.
Hurkacz’s stats have actually receded this week - he is breaking serve less now than he was coming in. But, when you factor in who has played, it’s pretty incredible he’s even been able to maintain a success rate above 20%. His path is wildly hard when you look back on it - Shapo, Raonic, Tsistsipas, and then Rublev? With a statistical disadvantage in each match? Four consecutive top 20 opponents? That’s like a Slam path. a hard Slam path (there’s a few recent Big 3 Slam titles with paths not even close to that hard). I think that kind of form is hard to pass up and I make this match a pick’em which means I see value in the market on Hurkacz too.

Picks:
Hurkacz +2.5, -119, BM